Who will win Texas vs Green Bay?
The model gives Texas a 93% chance to beat Green Bay, with a projected score of Texas 78, Green Bay 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas | |||||
| BookerF · 26 min | 16.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 15+ 60% | |
| ClarkG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| CunninghamF · 23 min | 10.6 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 10+ 53% | |
| VannG · 25 min | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 33% | |
 Green Bay | |||||
| SkorupskiG · 33 min | 13.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 15+ 41% | |
| SchultzF · 19 min | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| OuimetteG · 26 min | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 37% | |
| BuwaldaF · 21 min | 7.8 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Madison Booker: Texas 79%Green Bay 21%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Madison Booker | 8.5 | 79% | −14 | 73–64 |
| Breya Cunningham | 6.2 | 84% | −9 | 75–62 |
| Bryanna Preston | 6.1 | 84% | −9 | 75–62 |
| Zya Vann | 4.9 | 86% | −7 | 75–62 |
| Green Bay | ||||
| Maddy Skorupski | 4.2 | 97% | +4 | 80–57 |
| Elisa Mevius | 3.2 | 96% | +3 | 79–58 |
| Meghan Schultz | 2.5 | 96% | +3 | 79–58 |
| Kristina Ouimette | 1.6 | 95% | +2 | 79–58 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas, then Green Bay. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 93-63vs S Dakota StCovered −27.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 7W 91-29vs N ColoradoCovered −34.5 · Under 132.5
- Nov 4W 85-65vs FDU
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.7 and allowing 52.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Green Bay 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 66-75at Illinois St
- Nov 7W 82-48vs Loyola Chicago
- Nov 3L 60-76at Duke
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.3 and allowing 66.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas | Green Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.3 7th | 98.5 86th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 75.8 8th | 86.5 62nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.3% 39th | 46.4% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.5% 296th | 45.6% 186th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.0% 4th | 21.2% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.2% 70th | 30.6% 295th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 240th | 0.24 30th |
The widest gap: Texas's defense (8th) against Green Bay's offense (86th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas 38, Green Bay 27
- First-half margin
- Texas by 10.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Projected second half
- Texas 40, Green Bay 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 22.3 allowed
- Green Bay, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison BookerF | 26 | 16.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Bryanna PrestonG | 26 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Zya VannG | 25 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jayda ClarkG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Breya CunninghamF | 23 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 49% | |||||
| Isi EtuteF | 20 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Addison BjornG | 16 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Brihanna CrittendonF | 13 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Green Bay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddy SkorupskiG | 33 | 13.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Elisa MeviusG | 30 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kristina OuimetteG | 26 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jorey BuwaldaF | 21 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Maren WestinG | 19 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Meghan SchultzF | 19 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
| McKenna JohnsonG | 18 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Gracie GrzeskF | 17 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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