Tarleton St at Texas
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Moody Center. Tarleton St our rank 240 · 2-1; Texas AP 6, our rank 5 · 3-0.
Who will win Tarleton St vs Texas?
The model gives Texas a >99% chance to beat Tarleton State, with a projected score of Texas 89, Tarleton St 42.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | |||||
| BookerF · 25 min | 18.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 20+ 40% | |
| ClarkG · 24 min | 12.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| CunninghamF · 22 min | 11.7 | 7.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| VannG · 24 min | 8.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 38% | |
| Tarleton St | |||||
| LylesG · 24 min | 5.9 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 5+ 55% | |
| GonçalvesG · 26 min | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 5+ 55% | |
| MedfordG · 24 min | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 49% | |
| NavarroG · 24 min | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Madison Booker: Tarleton St 1%Texas 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Madison Booker | 8.5 | 99% | −1 | 47–85 |
| Breya Cunningham | 6.2 | >99% | 0 | 46–86 |
| Bryanna Preston | 6.1 | >99% | 0 | 45–86 |
| Zya Vann | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 45–87 |
| Tarleton St | ||||
| Jovana Spasovski | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 42–90 |
| Caroline Lyles | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 42–90 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Tarleton St, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 64-44vs Sul Ross State
- Nov 8L 42-89at TCU
- Nov 4W 66-47vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 57.3 and allowing 60.0
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 93-63vs S Dakota StCovered −27.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 7W 91-29vs N ColoradoCovered −34.5 · Under 132.5
- Nov 4W 85-65vs FDU
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.7 and allowing 52.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tarleton St | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.8 284th | 116.3 7th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.6 183rd | 75.8 8th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 194th | 48.3% 39th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.3% 60th | 47.5% 296th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 313th | 20.0% 4th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 244th | 35.2% 70th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 118th | 0.20 240th |
The widest gap: Texas's defense (8th) against Tarleton St's offense (284th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tarleton St 18, Texas 45
- First-half margin
- Texas by 27.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.5
- Projected second half
- Tarleton St 25, Texas 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 22.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephany GonçalvesG | 26 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caroline LylesG | 24 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Olivia MedfordG | 24 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Lucia NavarroG | 24 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Kristian HieskillG | 23 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Jovana SpasovskiG | 18 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Marie DiameG | 14 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Kendall FordG | 13 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 41% | |||||
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison BookerF | 25 | 18.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bryanna PrestonG | 25 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Zya VannG | 24 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jayda ClarkG | 24 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Breya CunninghamF | 22 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 8+ reb 45% | |||||
| Isi EtuteF | 19 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Addison BjornG | 17 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Brihanna CrittendonF | 14 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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