Tarleton St at Louisiana
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Cajundome. Tarleton St our rank 240 · 2-1; Louisiana our rank 225 · 1-2.
Who will win Tarleton St vs Louisiana?
The model gives Louisiana a 66% chance to beat Tarleton State, with a projected score of Louisiana 65, Tarleton St 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | |||||
| DanielF · 28 min | 12.7 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| JacksonG · 28 min | 12.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 34% | |
| JonesG · 28 min | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| SoweF · 29 min | 9.3 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| Tarleton St | |||||
| GonçalvesG · 29 min | 8.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| LylesG · 26 min | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| MedfordG · 26 min | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 69% | |
| NavarroG · 26 min | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Imani Daniel: Tarleton St 35%Louisiana 65%
The white mark is the call with her: Louisiana 66%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Louisiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | ||||
| Imani Daniel | 0.5 | 65% | −1 | 60–65 |
| Tarleton St | ||||
| Jovana Spasovski | 0.6 | 68% | +2 | 60–66 |
| Caroline Lyles | 0.6 | 68% | +2 | 60–66 |
Change is in Louisiana's win chance, in points. Scores read Tarleton St, then Louisiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 64-44vs Sul Ross State
- Nov 8L 42-89at TCU
- Nov 4W 66-47vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 57.3 and allowing 60.0
Louisiana 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 77-80at East Texas A&M
- Nov 5L 51-62at Texas A&M
- Nov 3W 77-72vs Xavier (LA)
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 68.3 and allowing 71.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tarleton St | Louisiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.8 284th | 85.2 259th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.6 183rd | 95.4 207th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 73.2 84th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 194th | 43.1% 311th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.3% 60th | 44.8% 142nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 313th | 22.5% 99th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 244th | 36.7% 38th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 118th | 0.22 130th |
The widest gap: Louisiana's defense (207th) against Tarleton St's offense (284th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tarleton St 28, Louisiana 31
- First-half margin
- Louisiana by 3.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.6
- Projected second half
- Tarleton St 32, Louisiana 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
- Louisiana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephany GonçalvesG | 29 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Caroline LylesG | 26 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Olivia MedfordG | 26 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Lucia NavarroG | 26 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kristian HieskillG | 25 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jovana SpasovskiG | 18 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Marie DiameG | 12 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Kendall FordG | 12 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Louisiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aminata SoweF | 29 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jazmyne JacksonG | 28 | 12.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Malaya JonesG | 28 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Imani DanielF | 28 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Bailey TimmonsG | 23 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Amijah PriceG | 19 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Arionna PattersonF | 15 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Mikaylah ManleyG | 14 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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