Texas Tech v North Carolina
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at State Farm Field House. Texas Tech our rank 33 · 2-0; North Carolina AP 23, our rank 28 · 1-2.
Who will win Texas Tech vs North Carolina?
The model gives North Carolina a 52% chance to beat Texas Tech, with a projected score of North Carolina 64, Texas Tech 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrooksG · 26 min | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| HarpringG · 27 min | 11.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| AkotF · 24 min | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| KellyG · 26 min | 5.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 5+ 56% | |
| Texas Tech | |||||
| HooksG · 27 min | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| BristowG · 35 min | 11.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| ColeG · 32 min | 10.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 48% | |
| OkechukwuC · 22 min | 10.0 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Achol Akot: Texas Tech 64%North Carolina 36%
The white mark is the call with her: North Carolina 52%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | North Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Achol Akot | 4.4 | 36% | −16 | 66–62 |
| Nyla Brooks | 4.0 | 37% | −15 | 66–62 |
| Reniya Kelly | 3.2 | 40% | −12 | 65–63 |
| Sophie Burrows | 2.6 | 42% | −10 | 65–63 |
| Texas Tech | ||||
| Jalynn Bristow | 7.0 | 76% | +24 | 60–68 |
| Destinee Hooks | 3.9 | 66% | +14 | 62–66 |
| Jalayah Ingram | 3.7 | 65% | +13 | 62–66 |
| Ambrosia Cole | 2.8 | 62% | +10 | 62–66 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas Tech, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas Tech 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 71.0 and allowing 32.5
North Carolina 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 109-40vs NC CentralCovered −46.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 8L 39-84vs South CarolinaDidn't cover +16.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2L 79-91vs Oklahoma
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 71.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas Tech | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 72nd | 107.3 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 75.6 7th | 82.2 38th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.9% 283rd | 46.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 39.6% 2nd | 45.5% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 221st | 22.6% 106th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 98th | 37.5% 24th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 11th | 0.17 355th |
The widest gap: North Carolina's defense (38th) against Texas Tech's offense (72nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas Tech 30, North Carolina 31
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.7
- Projected second half
- Texas Tech 34, North Carolina 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas Tech, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 36.5 scored, 13.5 allowed
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalynn BristowG | 35 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ambrosia ColeG | 32 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Destinee HooksG | 27 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Tahys Da SilvaG | 26 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Stephanie OkechukwuC | 22 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 52% | |||||
| Jalayah IngramG | 21 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Martina AnyangoF | 20 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate HarpringG | 27 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Reniya KellyG | 26 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Nyla BrooksG | 26 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Achol AkotF | 24 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Blanca ThomasC | 22 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Gabby WhiteG | 18 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Sophie BurrowsG | 16 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Taissa QueirozG | 14 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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