Who will win Nebraska vs Kansas?
The model gives Nebraska a 78% chance to beat Kansas, with a projected score of Nebraska 72, Kansas 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska | |||||
| PrinceG · 28 min | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 15+ 60% | |
| HargroveF · 26 min | 12.7 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| KoupalF · 23 min | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| PottsF · 20 min | 8.8 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 39% | |
 Kansas | |||||
| DavisF · 28 min | 17.5 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 15+ 63% | |
| NicholsG · 23 min | 11.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 10+ 60% | |
| WilliamsF · 27 min | 8.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| FandelG · 29 min | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Britt Prince: Nebraska 61%Kansas 39%
The white mark is the call with her: Nebraska 78%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Nebraska without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Britt Prince | 6.2 | 61% | −17 | 68–65 |
| Amiah Hargrove | 5.1 | 64% | −14 | 69–65 |
| Natalie Potts | 3.4 | 69% | −9 | 70–64 |
| Logan Nissley | 3.2 | 70% | −8 | 70–64 |
| Kansas | ||||
| Jaliya Davis | 5.2 | 88% | +10 | 74–59 |
| S'Mya Nichols | 4.2 | 87% | +9 | 74–60 |
| Regan Williams | 2.7 | 84% | +6 | 73–61 |
| Brittany Harshaw | 2.3 | 83% | +5 | 73–61 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Nebraska, then Kansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-35vs NC A&T
- Nov 7W 98-35vs W Illinois
- Nov 2W 81-54vs San José St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.0 and allowing 41.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nebraska | Kansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.8 25th | 100.6 70th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.1 12th | 82.7 42nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 26th | 46.7% 114th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.2% 104th | 42.7% 34th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 191st | 23.5% 181st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 67th | 31.9% 234th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 246th | 0.24 28th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's defense (12th) against Kansas's offense (70th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nebraska 34, Kansas 29
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Projected second half
- Nebraska 37, Kansas 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 17.7 allowed
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britt PrinceG | 28 | 16.9 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Amiah HargroveF | 26 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Ashlyn KoupalF | 23 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Allison WeidnerG | 22 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Kennadi WilliamsG | 22 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 28% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Natalie PottsF | 20 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Maddi StewartG | 17 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Logan NissleyG | 16 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany HarshawG | 30 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Libby FandelG | 29 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jaliya DavisF | 28 | 17.5 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Regan WilliamsF | 27 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| S'Mya NicholsG | 23 | 11.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Anna GoodenG | 22 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Brooklynn RennF | 15 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Mollie ErnstesG | 14 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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