Mount St Marys at Nebraska
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mount St Marys our rank 344 · 0-4; Nebraska AP 25, our rank 21 · 3-0.
Who will win Mount St Marys vs Nebraska?
The model gives Nebraska a >99% chance to beat Mount St. Mary's, with a projected score of Nebraska 91, Mount St Marys 40.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | |||||
| PrinceG · 25 min | 19.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 20+ 45% | |
| HargroveF · 24 min | 14.7 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 47% | |
| PottsF · 20 min | 10.8 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 54% | |
| KoupalF · 21 min | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 51% | |
| Mount St Marys | |||||
| KoserG · 24 min | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 31% | |
| PowellG · 25 min | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 5+ 65% | |
| GuerardG · 24 min | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5+ 44% | |
| SaricF · 25 min | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 5+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Britt Prince: Mount St Marys <1%Nebraska >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Nebraska >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Nebraska without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Britt Prince | 6.2 | >99% | 0 | 43–88 |
| Amiah Hargrove | 5.1 | >99% | 0 | 43–89 |
| Natalie Potts | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 42–90 |
| Logan Nissley | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 42–90 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Mount St Marys, then Nebraska. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mount St Marys 0-4LLLL
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 54.2 and allowing 81.5
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-35vs NC A&T
- Nov 7W 98-35vs W Illinois
- Nov 2W 81-54vs San José St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.0 and allowing 41.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mount St Marys | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 75.2 353rd | 107.8 25th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.0 313th | 78.1 12th |
| Possessions a game | 73.6 65th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.8% 341st | 48.8% 26th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 343rd | 44.2% 104th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.2% 327th | 23.6% 191st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 350th | 35.3% 67th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 243rd | 0.20 246th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's defense (12th) against Mount St Marys's offense (353rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mount St Marys 16, Nebraska 46
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 29.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Projected second half
- Mount St Marys 24, Nebraska 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mount St Marys, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 23.2 scored, 37.5 allowed
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 17.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mount St Marys
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alana PowellG | 25 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Valentina SaricF | 25 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nyodie GuerardG | 24 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jayla KoserG | 24 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Eva AndrewsG | 21 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kiyla FowlerG | 20 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Wesleigh FergusonG | 19 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 46% | |||||
| Lenora NkangwenF | 18 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 30% to play · 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Lenora Nkangwen (22 min a game).
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britt PrinceG | 25 | 19.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Amiah HargroveF | 24 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Allison WeidnerG | 21 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Ashlyn KoupalF | 21 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kennadi WilliamsG | 21 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 34% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Natalie PottsF | 20 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maddi StewartG | 17 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Logan NissleyG | 17 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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