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Bucknell at Mount St Marys

Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Knott Arena. Bucknell our rank 245 · 0-3; Mount St Marys our rank 344 · 0-4.

Who will win Bucknell vs Mount St Marys?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Bucknell a 74% chance to beat Mount St. Mary's, with a projected score of Bucknell 68, Mount St Marys 60.

To winBucknell 74%Mount St Marys 26%
Projected score68–60Bucknell, then Mount St Marys
Margin7.7Bucknell · no line posted
Total128.7no line posted
First half33–28Bucknell ahead 66%
Bucknell by 40by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10Mount St Marys by 20Model: Bucknell by 7.7Bucknell by 40by 20EvenMount St Marys by 20Model: Bucknell by 7.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Bucknell
WeismanG · 32 min14.85.13.715+ 48%
ZemitisG · 31 min11.04.31.310+ 56%
LiggioG · 28 min8.53.43.110+ 37%
CaseyG · 24 min7.92.81.310+ 32%
Mount St Marys
KoserG · 25 min11.44.01.210+ 58%
PowellG · 28 min10.52.92.910+ 52%
GuerardG · 26 min7.12.41.55+ 66%
SaricF · 27 min6.34.20.95+ 59%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Bucknell 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 11L 71-78vs Fordham
    2. Nov 7L 61-73at Brown
    3. Nov 2L 60-83at Florida
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 78.0

    Mount St Marys 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 11L 44-79at Lehigh
    2. Nov 8L 57-77vs UAlbany
    3. Nov 5L 53-79at UMBC
    4. Nov 2L 63-91vs Navy
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 54.2 and allowing 81.5

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    BucknellMount St Marys
    Points scored per 100 possessions89.7 182nd75.2 353rd
    Points allowed per 100101.7 320th101.0 313th
    Possessions a game69.1 359th73.6 65th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)46.3% 129th41.8% 341st
    Opponents' shooting49.1% 346th49.0% 343rd
    Turnovers, share of possessions21.6% 41st26.2% 327th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.0% 282nd28.5% 350th
    Free throws per shot0.19 301st0.20 243rd

    The widest gap: Bucknell's offense (182nd) against Mount St Marys's defense (313th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Bucknell 33, Mount St Marys 28
    First-half margin
    Bucknell by 4.4
    First-half points, both teams
    61.0
    Projected second half
    Bucknell 35, Mount St Marys 32
    Second-half points, both teams
    67.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Bucknell, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 41.0 allowed
    Mount St Marys, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 23.2 scored, 37.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Bucknell

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Elana WeismanG3214.85.13.71.1
    15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 49%
    Reese ZemitisG3111.04.31.32.1
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 55%
    Tessa LiggioG288.53.43.11.2
    10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 57%
    Isabella CaseyG247.92.81.30.7
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48%
    Ella KreuzerG235.81.91.61.1
    5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 46%
    Anna KunzwilerG234.03.01.50.4
    5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 43%
    Kaila RichardsG164.01.90.80.3
    5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 24%
    Mariah HardyF155.63.21.20.1
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 32%

    Mount St Marys

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Alana PowellG2810.52.92.90.8
    10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51%
    Valentina SaricF276.34.20.91.2
    5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 63%
    Nyodie GuerardG267.12.41.51.4
    5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 42%
    Jayla KoserG2511.44.01.20.9
    10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55%
    Eva AndrewsG224.12.60.90.8
    5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52%
    Kiyla FowlerG203.71.71.00.6
    5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 41%
    Lenora NkangwenF192.93.80.90.0
    30% to play · 5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 23%
    Wesleigh FergusonG182.53.50.90.1
    5+ pts 20% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 24%

    Missed the last game: Lenora Nkangwen (22 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 14

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 62-70Rhode Island at St John's, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 69-67Wisconsin at Green Bay, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 73-62California at Santa Barbara, women's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 74-65North Carolina at Penn, women's: game page
    5. 4:30 PMprojected 72-62Nebraska vs Kansas, women's: game page
    6. 6 PMprojected 69-71Northwestern vs App State, women's: game page
    Bucknell next: at UAlbany, Wed, Nov 18 · 28%Mount St Marys next: at Nebraska, Tue, Nov 17 · <1%Bucknell: schedule and oddsMount St Marys: schedule and odds