Who won Bucknell vs Florida?
Final: Florida 83, Bucknell 60. Before tip-off the model gave Florida a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 26.1 points for Florida. Kiyomi McMiller scored 31 for Florida; Elana Weisman had 18 for Bucknell.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kiyomi McMiller: Bucknell 6%Florida 94%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | ||||
| Kiyomi McMiller | 4.4 | 94% | −3 | 66–88 |
| Vanessa Harris | 3.0 | 95% | −2 | 65–88 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 3.0 | 95% | −2 | 65–88 |
| Jade Weathersby | 2.7 | 96% | −1 | 65–88 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Bucknell, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Bucknell
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Florida
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bucknell | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.7 182nd | 104.1 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.7 320th | 88.1 78th |
| Possessions a game | 69.1 359th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.3% 129th | 47.6% 64th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 346th | 45.3% 162nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 41st | 21.7% 48th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 282nd | 32.0% 225th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 301st | 0.21 203rd |
The widest gap: Florida's offense (42nd) against Bucknell's defense (320th), of 363 teams.
First half
Florida led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 5.8.
- At halftime
- Bucknell 25, Florida 42
- Projected halftime score
- Bucknell 29, Florida 44
- First-half margin
- Florida by 15.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Bucknell
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elana WeismanG | 32 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Tessa LiggioG | 30 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Reese ZemitisG | 29 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Ella KreuzerG | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaila RichardsG | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isabella CaseyG | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mariah HardyF | 16 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anna KunzwilerG | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alaina DadzieF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyomi McMillerG | 36 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Vanessa HarrisG | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Moriah MurrayG | 30 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan JonesG | 22 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Aurora AlmonF | 22 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Vivian IwuchukwuF | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jade WeathersbyF | 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Niya BroomeG | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taliyah ParkerG | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |