Navy 91, Mount St Marys 63
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Knott Arena. Navy our rank 171 · 1-2; Mount St Marys our rank 344 · 0-4.
Who won Navy vs Mount St Marys?
Final: Navy 91, Mount St. Mary's 63. Before tip-off the model gave Navy a 80% chance to win, with a projected margin of 11.5 points for Navy. Zoe Mesuch scored 16 for Navy; Jayla Koser had 16 for Mount St Marys.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Zanai Barnett-Gay: Navy 73%Mount St Marys 27%
The white mark is the call with her: Navy 80%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Navy without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | ||||
| Zanai Barnett-Gay | 2.9 | 73% | −7 | 81–73 |
| Quinn Boettinger | 1.2 | 77% | −3 | 82–72 |
| Zoe Mesuch | 0.7 | 78% | −2 | 83–72 |
| Julianna Almeida | 0.6 | 78% | −2 | 83–72 |
Change is in Navy's win chance, in points. Scores read Navy, then Mount St Marys. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Navy
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Mount St Marys
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Navy | Mount St Marys | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.1 126th | 75.2 353rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.8 234th | 101.0 313th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 31st | 41.8% 341st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 241st | 49.0% 343rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.7% 114th | 26.2% 327th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 172nd | 28.5% 350th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 195th | 0.20 243rd |
The widest gap: Navy's offense (126th) against Mount St Marys's defense (313th), of 363 teams.
First half
Navy led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 14.4 points and the total by 0.2.
- At halftime
- Navy 47, Mount St Marys 26
- Projected halftime score
- Navy 40, Mount St Marys 33
- First-half margin
- Navy by 6.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Navy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe MesuchG | 29 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 4 |
| Zanai Barnett-GayG | 27 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 1 |
| Christina LiggioG | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julianna AlmeidaG | 18 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Isa GrantF | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Mary GibbonsG | 17 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Lizzie HolderF | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Saran MoschellaG | 12 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Quinn BoettingerF | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Mount St Marys
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyla FowlerG | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Valentina SaricF | 26 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Lenora NkangwenF | 25 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Alana PowellG | 25 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Jayla KoserG | 22 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Nyodie GuerardG | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Eva AndrewsG | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Thelma BarbitchG | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesleigh FergusonG | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |