Who will win Air Force vs Navy?
The model gives Navy a 59% chance to beat Air Force, with a projected score of Navy 68, Air Force 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | |||||
| Barnett-GayG · 33 min | 17.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 15+ 62% | |
| MesuchG · 32 min | 13.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 15+ 42% | |
| AlmeidaG · 27 min | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 5+ 66% | |
| GibbonsG · 21 min | 6.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5+ 63% | |
 Air Force | |||||
| O'HollarenG · 34 min | 14.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| McNabbG · 33 min | 12.0 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| DeVaughnG · 32 min | 9.9 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| CortezG · 36 min | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zanai Barnett-Gay: Air Force 50%Navy 50%
The white mark is the call with her: Navy 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Navy without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy | ||||
| Zanai Barnett-Gay | 2.9 | 50% | −9 | 66–66 |
| Quinn Boettinger | 1.2 | 56% | −3 | 65–67 |
| Zoe Mesuch | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 65–67 |
| Julianna Almeida | 0.6 | 57% | −2 | 65–67 |
| Air Force | ||||
| Jayda McNabb | 3.0 | 69% | +10 | 63–69 |
| Keelie O'Hollaren | 1.3 | 64% | +5 | 64–68 |
| Jordyn DeVaughn | 0.5 | 61% | +2 | 65–68 |
Change is in Navy's win chance, in points. Scores read Air Force, then Navy. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Air Force 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 70-77vs San Francisco
- Nov 7W 61-37vs Saint Mary's
- Nov 2W 66-45vs Denver
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 65.7 and allowing 53.0
Navy 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 61-77at James Madison
- Nov 7L 77-97at Temple
- Nov 2W 91-63at Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.3 and allowing 79.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Air Force | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.9 219th | 94.1 126th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.0 93rd | 96.8 234th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.4% 331st | 48.5% 31st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.5% 173rd | 46.4% 241st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 241st | 22.7% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 164th | 32.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 208th | 0.21 195th |
The widest gap: Air Force's defense (93rd) against Navy's offense (126th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Air Force 31, Navy 32
- First-half margin
- Navy by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.9
- Projected second half
- Air Force 34, Navy 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Air Force, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Navy, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis CortezG | 36 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Keelie O'HollarenG | 34 | 14.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayda McNabbG | 33 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 10+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jordyn DeVaughnG | 32 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Julia LeachF | 20 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
| Eva LoveG | 17 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Chloe ParkerG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Navy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zanai Barnett-GayG | 33 | 17.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Zoe MesuchG | 32 | 13.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Julianna AlmeidaG | 27 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Mary GibbonsG | 21 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Lizzie HolderF | 20 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Quinn BoettingerF | 18 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Isa GrantF | 16 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Grace MinihaneG | 15 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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