Southern Utah at Air Force
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Clune Arena. Southern Utah our rank 174 · 2-1; Air Force our rank 153 · 2-1.
Who will win Southern Utah vs Air Force?
The model gives Air Force a 68% chance to beat Southern Utah, with a projected score of Air Force 68, Southern Utah 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | |||||
| O'HollarenG · 34 min | 14.9 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 48% | |
| McNabbG · 33 min | 12.3 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 10+ 64% | |
| DeVaughnG · 32 min | 10.1 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| CortezG · 35 min | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| Southern Utah | |||||
| UhrichF · 31 min | 14.2 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 44% | |
| FelyF · 24 min | 11.6 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| DomanG · 33 min | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 5+ 64% | |
| AndersonF · 23 min | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jayda McNabb: Southern Utah 41%Air Force 59%
The white mark is the call with her: Air Force 68%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Air Force without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | ||||
| Jayda McNabb | 3.0 | 59% | −9 | 63–66 |
| Keelie O'Hollaren | 1.3 | 64% | −4 | 62–67 |
| Jordyn DeVaughn | 0.5 | 67% | −1 | 62–68 |
| Southern Utah | ||||
| Ava Uhrich | 2.3 | 74% | +6 | 61–69 |
| Brooklyn Fely | 2.0 | 73% | +5 | 61–69 |
Change is in Air Force's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Utah, then Air Force. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Utah 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 98-56vs Park University Gilbert
- Nov 6L 63-64at New Mexico St
- Nov 2W 87-31vs Redlands
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.7 and allowing 50.3
Air Force 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 70-77vs San Francisco
- Nov 7W 61-37vs Saint Mary's
- Nov 2W 66-45vs Denver
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 65.7 and allowing 53.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Utah | Air Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.4 135th | 87.9 219th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.0 238th | 89.0 93rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 148th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 147th | 42.4% 331st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 149th | 45.5% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 186th | 24.2% 241st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.3% 151st | 33.1% 164th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 81st | 0.21 208th |
The widest gap: Air Force's defense (93rd) against Southern Utah's offense (135th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Utah 29, Air Force 33
- First-half margin
- Air Force by 3.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.5
- Projected second half
- Southern Utah 33, Air Force 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Utah, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
- Air Force, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortney DomanG | 33 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ava UhrichF | 31 | 14.2 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 8+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Brooklyn FelyF | 24 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Denver AndersonF | 23 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Charli KayG | 17 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Bella HasanG | 17 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Melicia NelsonG | 16 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Diana SorrondoF | 13 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis CortezG | 35 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Keelie O'HollarenG | 34 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayda McNabbG | 33 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 10+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jordyn DeVaughnG | 32 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Julia LeachF | 20 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Eva LoveG | 17 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Chloe ParkerG | 11 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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