Who won Denver vs Air Force?
Final: Air Force 66, Denver 45. Before tip-off the model gave Air Force a 78% chance to win, with a projected margin of 10.7 points for Air Force. Jordyn DeVaughn scored 19 for Air Force; Karolina Padilla had 16 for Denver.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jayda McNabb: Denver 29%Air Force 71%
The white mark is the call with her: Air Force 78%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Air Force without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Air Force | ||||
| Jayda McNabb | 3.0 | 71% | −7 | 73–81 |
| Keelie O'Hollaren | 1.3 | 75% | −3 | 72–81 |
| Jordyn DeVaughn | 0.5 | 77% | −1 | 72–82 |
Change is in Air Force's win chance, in points. Scores read Denver, then Air Force. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Denver
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Air Force
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Denver | Air Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.1 249th | 87.9 219th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.8 321st | 89.0 93rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 40.9% 354th | 42.4% 331st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.3% 324th | 45.5% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.8% 120th | 24.2% 241st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 127th | 33.1% 164th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 23rd | 0.21 208th |
The widest gap: Air Force's defense (93rd) against Denver's offense (249th), of 363 teams.
First half
It was tied at the half. The margin was off by 6.2 points and the total by 18.8.
- At halftime
- Denver 27, Air Force 27
- Projected halftime score
- Denver 33, Air Force 39
- First-half margin
- Air Force by 6.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Denver
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina PadillaG | 38 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tori BakerG | 36 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Laia MonclovaG | 35 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Mallory McQuietorF | 25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooke MurrellF | 24 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Emma HartG | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Safiyah SugapongG | 15 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ana CondeF | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lily EsparzaF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Air Force
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayda McNabbG | 38 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 1 |
| Jordyn DeVaughnG | 37 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Alexis CortezG | 32 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Keelie O'HollarenG | 29 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Eva LoveG | 16 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| AJ ManneringG | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Julia LeachF | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Marissa HargraveG | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chloe ParkerG | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |