Who will win Denver vs LSU?
The model gives LSU a >99% chance to beat Denver, with a projected score of LSU 98, Denver 48.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LSU | |||||
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 15.9 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 15.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 15+ 52% | |
| FulwileyG · 24 min | 15.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 15+ 49% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 11.7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 10+ 60% | |
 Denver | |||||
| BakerG · 31 min | 8.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 35% | |
| MurrellF · 25 min | 7.9 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 10+ 32% | |
| MonclovaG · 32 min | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 5+ 67% | |
| PadillaG · 23 min | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MiLaysia Fulwiley: Denver <1%LSU >99%
The white mark is the call with her: LSU >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | LSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | ||||
| MiLaysia Fulwiley | 6.9 | >99% | 0 | 51–94 |
| Mikaylah Williams | 6.2 | >99% | 0 | 51–95 |
| ZaKiyah Johnson | 6.1 | >99% | 0 | 51–95 |
| Jada Williams | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 51–95 |
Change is in LSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Denver, then LSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Denver 1-3LWLL
- Nov 10L 50-86vs Colorado St
- Nov 7L 51-64at Weber St
- Nov 4W 66-52vs Lindenwood
- Nov 2L 45-66at Air Force
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 53.0 and allowing 67.0
LSU 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-43vs McNeese
- Nov 5W 131-22vs Texas Southern
- Nov 2W 129-35vs SE Louisiana
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 120.0 and allowing 33.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Denver | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.1 249th | 114.8 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.8 321st | 78.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 321st | 76.3 5th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 40.9% 354th | 51.3% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.3% 324th | 40.0% 5th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.8% 120th | 20.4% 9th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 127th | 40.5% 2nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 23rd | 0.21 189th |
The widest gap: LSU's offense (8th) against Denver's defense (321st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Denver 20, LSU 49
- First-half margin
- LSU by 28.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.1
- Projected second half
- Denver 28, LSU 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Denver, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 28.2 scored, 34.5 allowed
- LSU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 60.7 scored, 16.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Denver
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laia MonclovaG | 32 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tori BakerG | 31 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Brooke MurrellF | 25 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Mallory McQuietorF | 24 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Karolina PadillaG | 23 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 27% to play · 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Emma HartG | 22 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ana CondeF | 16 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Safiyah SugapongG | 15 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Missed the last game: Karolina Padilla (30 min a game).
LSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jada WilliamsG | 26 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 56% · 7+ ast 56% | |||||
| Mikaylah WilliamsG | 25 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| ZaKiyah JohnsonG | 24 | 15.9 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| MiLaysia FulwileyG | 24 | 15.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 59% | |||||
| Grace KnoxF | 22 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Laila ReynoldsG | 19 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Lola LampleyG | 18 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Anna MinaevaF | 17 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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