Who will win Troy vs LSU?
The model gives LSU a >99% chance to beat Troy, with a projected score of LSU 98, Troy 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LSU | |||||
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 15.6 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 15+ 53% | |
| WilliamsG · 25 min | 15.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| FulwileyG · 24 min | 14.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 15+ 48% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 11.5 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 10+ 59% | |
 Troy | |||||
| SmithG · 23 min | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| HubbardG · 26 min | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
| JacksonG · 24 min | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 31% | |
| HughesG · 17 min | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MiLaysia Fulwiley: Troy 1%LSU 99%
The white mark is the call with her: LSU >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | LSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | ||||
| MiLaysia Fulwiley | 6.9 | 99% | −1 | 63–94 |
| Mikaylah Williams | 6.2 | 99% | −1 | 63–94 |
| ZaKiyah Johnson | 6.1 | 99% | −1 | 63–94 |
| Jada Williams | 5.0 | >99% | 0 | 62–95 |
| Troy | ||||
| Saniya Jackson | 2.1 | >99% | 0 | 59–99 |
| Shakirah Edwards | 1.3 | >99% | 0 | 59–98 |
| Hannah Smith | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–98 |
| Aniya Hubbard | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 59–98 |
Change is in LSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Troy, then LSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Troy 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 57-79at Mississippi St
- Nov 5W 104-36vs Thomas
- Nov 2W 89-78at Kent State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 64.3
LSU 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-43vs McNeese
- Nov 5W 131-22vs Texas Southern
- Nov 2W 129-35vs SE Louisiana
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 120.0 and allowing 33.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Troy | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.0 129th | 114.8 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.7 146th | 78.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 76.7 3rd | 76.3 5th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.4% 73rd | 51.3% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 45th | 40.0% 5th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 146th | 20.4% 9th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 268th | 40.5% 2nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 217th | 0.21 189th |
The widest gap: LSU's offense (8th) against Troy's defense (146th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Troy 26, LSU 48
- First-half margin
- LSU by 21.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.5
- Projected second half
- Troy 33, LSU 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Troy, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 36.7 allowed
- LSU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 60.7 scored, 16.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aniya HubbardG | 26 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Saniya JacksonG | 24 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Hannah SmithG | 23 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Maliyah MeeksF | 20 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Shakirah EdwardsG | 19 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Tayla BarrosG | 18 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tiauna KingG | 18 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kimora HughesG | 17 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
LSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jada WilliamsG | 26 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 54% · 7+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mikaylah WilliamsG | 25 | 15.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| ZaKiyah JohnsonG | 24 | 15.6 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| MiLaysia FulwileyG | 24 | 14.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Grace KnoxF | 22 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Laila ReynoldsG | 19 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Lola LampleyG | 18 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Anna MinaevaF | 17 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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