UC Davis at N Colorado
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Bank of Colorado Arena. UC Davis our rank 131 · 2-2; N Colorado our rank 185 · 2-1.
Who will win UC Davis vs N Colorado?
The model gives UC Davis a 53% chance to beat Northern Colorado, with a projected score of UC Davis 66, N Colorado 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | |||||
| SussexG · 32 min | 13.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 15+ 39% | |
| ForslineF · 28 min | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 61% | |
| DonnellyG · 24 min | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| YoungF · 26 min | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 5+ 70% | |
| N Colorado | |||||
| WestF · 30 min | 14.6 | 11.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 47% | |
| BaymonG · 25 min | 13.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| GeorgeG · 26 min | 8.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 10+ 38% | |
| GalbraithG · 22 min | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Avery Sussex: UC Davis 46%N Colorado 54%
The white mark is the call with her: UC Davis 53%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UC Davis without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | ||||
| Avery Sussex | 2.3 | 46% | −7 | 65–66 |
| Angeliki Ziaka | 1.7 | 48% | −5 | 65–66 |
| Tegan Young | 1.0 | 50% | −3 | 66–66 |
| Rebecca Donnelly | 0.8 | 51% | −2 | 66–66 |
| N Colorado | ||||
| Tatum West | 2.6 | 63% | +10 | 68–64 |
| Heather Baymon | 0.9 | 57% | +4 | 67–65 |
| Neenah George | 0.7 | 57% | +4 | 67–65 |
Change is in UC Davis's win chance, in points. Scores read UC Davis, then N Colorado. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UC Davis 2-2WLLW
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 75.0 and allowing 59.2
N Colorado 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 123-30vs Northern New Mexico
- Nov 7L 29-91at TexasDidn't cover +34.5 · Under 132.5
- Nov 2W 102-76vs Hastings
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.7 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC Davis | N Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.1 138th | 90.3 171st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.7 128th | 95.3 205th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 94th | 43.9% 285th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 45th | 47.3% 289th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 44th | 27.2% 347th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 119th | 32.5% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 363rd | 0.20 231st |
The widest gap: UC Davis's offense (138th) against N Colorado's defense (205th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UC Davis 31, N Colorado 31
- First-half margin
- UC Davis by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.3
- Projected second half
- UC Davis 35, N Colorado 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UC Davis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.2 scored, 28.0 allowed
- N Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UC Davis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery SussexG | 32 | 13.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Marta ForslineF | 28 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Angeliki ZiakaG | 27 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tegan YoungF | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Rebecca DonnellyG | 24 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Sophie LentferG | 22 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Anna BassettG | 21 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Emmy ErsdalaG | 10 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
N Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum WestF | 30 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 11+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Neenah GeorgeG | 26 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Heather BaymonG | 25 | 13.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 45% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mia GalbraithG | 22 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Da'Nae JeffersonG | 22 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Alex PirogC | 18 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Lilah MooreG | 17 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Ericka HugginsF | 14 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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