Sam Houston at N Colorado
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Bank of Colorado Arena. Sam Houston our rank 252 · 2-1; N Colorado our rank 185 · 2-1.
Who will win Sam Houston vs N Colorado?
The model gives Northern Colorado a 79% chance to beat Sam Houston, with a projected score of N Colorado 70, Sam Houston 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Colorado | |||||
| WestF · 29 min | 14.9 | 11.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 48% | |
| BaymonG · 25 min | 14.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 15+ 45% | |
| GeorgeG · 25 min | 8.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| GalbraithG · 22 min | 8.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| Sam Houston | |||||
| KoneG · 28 min | 10.1 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| OgayemiF · 28 min | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| JohnsonF · 25 min | 9.1 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| WallaceG · 24 min | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tatum West: Sam Houston 28%N Colorado 72%
The white mark is the call with her: N Colorado 79%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | N Colorado without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Colorado | ||||
| Tatum West | 2.6 | 72% | −7 | 61–69 |
| Heather Baymon | 0.9 | 77% | −2 | 60–70 |
| Neenah George | 0.7 | 77% | −2 | 60–70 |
| Sam Houston | ||||
| Fanta Kone | 1.3 | 81% | +2 | 59–71 |
| Deborah Ogayemi | 0.9 | 81% | +2 | 59–70 |
Change is in N Colorado's win chance, in points. Scores read Sam Houston, then N Colorado. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Sam Houston 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 91.7 and allowing 56.0
N Colorado 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 123-30vs Northern New Mexico
- Nov 7L 29-91at TexasDidn't cover +34.5 · Under 132.5
- Nov 2W 102-76vs Hastings
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.7 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Sam Houston | N Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.1 291st | 90.3 171st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.6 181st | 95.3 205th |
| Possessions a game | 73.9 51st | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.6% 298th | 43.9% 285th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 276th | 47.3% 289th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 140th | 27.2% 347th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 254th | 32.5% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 225th | 0.20 231st |
The widest gap: N Colorado's defense (205th) against Sam Houston's offense (291st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Sam Houston 28, N Colorado 34
- First-half margin
- N Colorado by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.4
- Projected second half
- Sam Houston 32, N Colorado 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Sam Houston, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 50.0 scored, 30.3 allowed
- N Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Sam Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deborah OgayemiF | 28 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Fanta KoneG | 28 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| Lanaijha JohnsonF | 25 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 47% | |||||
| Hannah WallaceG | 24 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Esther RodellarG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Mar'Cyah WillisG | 17 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Taylor SpencerG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Ruke OgbevireG | 15 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
N Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum WestF | 29 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 11+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Neenah GeorgeG | 25 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Heather BaymonG | 25 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 48% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mia GalbraithG | 22 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Da'Nae JeffersonG | 21 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Alex PirogC | 18 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Lilah MooreG | 17 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ericka HugginsF | 15 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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