Northwestern v App State
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Colonial Hall. Northwestern our rank 138 · 1-2; App State our rank 121 · 3-0.
Who will win Northwestern vs App State?
The model gives App State a 57% chance to beat Northwestern, with a projected score of App State 71, Northwestern 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| App State | |||||
| WilliamsG · 29 min | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 15+ 41% | |
| MitchellG · 29 min | 13.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 38% | |
| Defne AtliF · 26 min | 10.8 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| AtchisonG · 23 min | 10.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| Northwestern | |||||
| CarmodyG · 29 min | 15.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 15+ 52% | |
| HarterG · 39 min | 13.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| Cooper-DerbaF · 34 min | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| NelsonG · 34 min | 7.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joi Williams: Northwestern 50%App State 50%
The white mark is the call with her: App State 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | App State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| App State | ||||
| Joi Williams | 2.2 | 50% | −7 | 70–70 |
| Raven Preston | 2.0 | 50% | −7 | 70–70 |
| Daisia Mitchell | 1.6 | 52% | −5 | 69–70 |
| Addie Biel | 1.0 | 54% | −3 | 69–70 |
| Northwestern | ||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-Derba | 2.7 | 65% | +8 | 67–72 |
| Lexi Blue | 1.5 | 61% | +4 | 68–71 |
| Lily Carmody | 1.3 | 61% | +4 | 68–71 |
| Camdyn Nelson | 1.0 | 60% | +3 | 68–71 |
Change is in App State's win chance, in points. Scores read Northwestern, then App State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northwestern 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 75.7
App State 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 71-67at Davidson
- Nov 4W 107-43vs Montreat
- Nov 2W 74-62at E Michigan
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 84.0 and allowing 57.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northwestern | App State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.5 74th | 94.1 125th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.8 273rd | 90.7 119th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 219th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 64th | 49.4% 20th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 354th | 44.3% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 128th | 24.1% 234th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 125th | 33.7% 140th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 37th | 0.20 280th |
The widest gap: App State's offense (125th) against Northwestern's defense (273rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northwestern 32, App State 34
- First-half margin
- App State by 1.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.0
- Projected second half
- Northwestern 36, App State 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northwestern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
- App State, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northwestern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey HarterG | 39 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-DerbaF | 34 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Camdyn NelsonG | 34 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Lexi BlueG | 32 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Lily CarmodyG | 29 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kat RigheimerG | 16 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Xamiya WaltonG | 11 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 26% · 2+ ast 17% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Brooke GoldenF | 10 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 58% | |||||
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisia MitchellG | 29 | 13.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Joi WilliamsG | 29 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Feryal Defne AtliF | 26 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Raven PrestonG | 26 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jadyn AtchisonG | 23 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Torin RogersG | 22 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jayden McBrideG | 21 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Addie BielF | 13 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…