Northwestern v West Virginia
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 5:30 PM ET at Colonial Hall. Northwestern our rank 138 · 1-2; West Virginia AP 24, our rank 30 · 3-0.
Who will win Northwestern vs West Virginia?
The model gives West Virginia a 94% chance to beat Northwestern, with a projected score of West Virginia 81, Northwestern 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | |||||
| ForbesF · 32 min | 18.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 20+ 40% | |
| CookeG · 32 min | 17.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 15+ 62% | |
| WaltonG · 27 min | 13.2 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| NgoduC · 23 min | 8.5 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| Northwestern | |||||
| CarmodyG · 28 min | 13.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| HarterG · 36 min | 11.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| Cooper-DerbaF · 31 min | 10.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| NelsonG · 31 min | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gia Cooke: Northwestern 12%West Virginia 88%
The white mark is the call with her: West Virginia 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | West Virginia without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | ||||
| Gia Cooke | 5.2 | 88% | −6 | 64–79 |
| Zahirah Walton | 4.8 | 88% | −6 | 64–79 |
| Skylar Forbes | 4.7 | 88% | −6 | 64–79 |
| Khyala Ngodu | 3.2 | 90% | −4 | 64–80 |
| Northwestern | ||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-Derba | 2.7 | 96% | +2 | 61–83 |
| Lexi Blue | 1.5 | 96% | +2 | 61–82 |
| Lily Carmody | 1.3 | 95% | +1 | 61–82 |
| Camdyn Nelson | 1.0 | 95% | +1 | 61–82 |
Change is in West Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Northwestern, then West Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northwestern 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 71.0 and allowing 75.7
West Virginia 3-0WWW
- Nov 8W 81-63at Georgia Tech
- Nov 5W 78-66vs G WashingtonDidn't cover −20.5 · Over 130.5
- Nov 3W 68-64vs Rhode Island
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.7 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northwestern | West Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.5 74th | 105.4 39th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.8 273rd | 80.6 23rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 219th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 64th | 47.0% 94th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 354th | 47.3% 287th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 128th | 23.7% 199th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 125th | 36.5% 43rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 37th | 0.22 133rd |
The widest gap: West Virginia's offense (39th) against Northwestern's defense (273rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northwestern 28, West Virginia 39
- First-half margin
- West Virginia by 11.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Projected second half
- Northwestern 34, West Virginia 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northwestern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
- West Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 30.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northwestern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey HarterG | 36 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-DerbaF | 31 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Camdyn NelsonG | 31 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Lexi BlueG | 30 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Lily CarmodyG | 28 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kat RigheimerG | 17 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Xamiya WaltonG | 12 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 16% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Brooke GoldenF | 11 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 60% | |||||
West Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gia CookeG | 32 | 17.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Skylar ForbesF | 32 | 18.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| Zahirah WaltonG | 27 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Khyala NgoduC | 23 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kennedy HarrisG | 22 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Marya HudginsG | 17 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Divine TumbaF | 16 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Nylah WilsonG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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