Who will win Troy vs Belmont?
The model gives Belmont a 61% chance to beat Troy, with a projected score of Belmont 73, Troy 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belmont | |||||
| McCarnG · 31 min | 15.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 15+ 52% | |
| JordanG · 30 min | 14.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| McGinnisG · 19 min | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 36% | |
| EubankG · 28 min | 6.9 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 5+ 64% | |
 Troy | |||||
| SmithG · 25 min | 13.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| HubbardG · 28 min | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| JacksonG · 26 min | 9.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| KingG · 18 min | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kenley McCarn: Troy 44%Belmont 56%
The white mark is the call with her: Belmont 61%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Belmont without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | ||||
| Kenley McCarn | 1.7 | 56% | −5 | 70–72 |
| Quinn Eubank | 1.7 | 56% | −5 | 70–72 |
| KK Brodie | 1.4 | 57% | −4 | 70–72 |
| Chelby Jordan | 0.8 | 59% | −2 | 69–72 |
| Troy | ||||
| Saniya Jackson | 2.1 | 67% | +6 | 68–74 |
| Shakirah Edwards | 1.3 | 65% | +4 | 68–73 |
| Hannah Smith | 0.9 | 64% | +3 | 69–73 |
| Aniya Hubbard | 0.8 | 64% | +3 | 69–73 |
Change is in Belmont's win chance, in points. Scores read Troy, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Troy 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 57-79at Mississippi St
- Nov 5W 104-36vs Thomas
- Nov 2W 89-78at Kent State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 64.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Troy | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.0 129th | 92.2 150th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.7 146th | 91.9 133rd |
| Possessions a game | 76.7 3rd | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.4% 73rd | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 45th | 45.7% 193rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 146th | 24.2% 241st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 268th | 31.9% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 217th | 0.19 309th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Troy 33, Belmont 35
- First-half margin
- Belmont by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Projected second half
- Troy 37, Belmont 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Troy, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 36.7 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 22.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aniya HubbardG | 28 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Saniya JacksonG | 26 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Hannah SmithG | 25 | 13.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Maliyah MeeksF | 20 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Tayla BarrosG | 19 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tiauna KingG | 18 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Shakirah EdwardsG | 18 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kimora HughesG | 16 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley McCarnG | 31 | 15.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Chelby JordanG | 30 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Quinn EubankG | 28 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| KK BrodieC | 26 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Katie CriswellG | 25 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kate McGinnisG | 19 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tatum WoodsonG | 17 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Samiya JonesF | 12 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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