Who will win Tennessee vs Belmont?
The model gives Tennessee a 96% chance to beat Belmont, with a projected score of Tennessee 83, Belmont 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee | |||||
| SmikleG · 21 min | 16.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 60% | |
| MinusG · 20 min | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 51% | |
| WhiteG · 18 min | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
| FauntleroyG · 20 min | 8.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 10+ 34% | |
 Belmont | |||||
| McCarnG · 29 min | 12.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 34% | |
| JordanG · 28 min | 11.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| McGinnisG · 19 min | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 5+ 67% | |
| EubankG · 26 min | 5.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kaylene Smikle: Tennessee 92%Belmont 8%
The white mark is the call with her: Tennessee 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Tennessee without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | ||||
| Kaylene Smikle | 4.0 | 92% | −4 | 81–64 |
| Aaliyah Moore | 3.6 | 93% | −3 | 81–63 |
| Rylie Theuerkauf | 3.1 | 93% | −3 | 81–63 |
| Fatmata Janneh | 3.0 | 93% | −3 | 81–63 |
| Belmont | ||||
| Kenley McCarn | 1.7 | 97% | +1 | 84–61 |
| Quinn Eubank | 1.7 | 97% | +1 | 84–61 |
| KK Brodie | 1.4 | 97% | +1 | 84–61 |
| Chelby Jordan | 0.8 | 96% | 0 | 83–61 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Tennessee, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tennessee 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 56.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tennessee | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.2 18th | 92.2 150th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 80.5 22nd | 91.9 133rd |
| Possessions a game | 76.2 7th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.4% 124th | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.4% 61st | 45.7% 193rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 1st | 24.2% 241st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.5% 8th | 31.9% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 155th | 0.19 309th |
The widest gap: Tennessee's defense (22nd) against Belmont's offense (150th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tennessee 40, Belmont 28
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 12.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.5
- Projected second half
- Tennessee 43, Belmont 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 30.2 allowed
- Belmont, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 22.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylene SmikleG | 21 | 16.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Gabby MinusG | 20 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Kennedy FauntleroyG | 20 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Rylie TheuerkaufG | 19 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jada EadsG | 19 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 41% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Fatmata JannehF | 18 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Naomi WhiteG | 18 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Aaliyah MooreF | 17 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley McCarnG | 29 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Chelby JordanG | 28 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Quinn EubankG | 26 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| KK BrodieC | 25 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Katie CriswellG | 24 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kate McGinnisG | 19 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Tatum WoodsonG | 17 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Samiya JonesF | 13 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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