Who won Duquesne vs Tennessee?
Final: Tennessee 109, Duquesne 62. Before tip-off the model gave Tennessee a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 32.5 points for Tennessee. Kaylene Smikle scored 31 for Tennessee; Carla Viegas had 24 for Duquesne.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kaylene Smikle: Duquesne 2%Tennessee 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Tennessee 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Tennessee without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee | ||||
| Kaylene Smikle | 4.0 | 98% | −1 | 69–97 |
| Aaliyah Moore | 3.6 | 98% | −1 | 69–98 |
| Rylie Theuerkauf | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 69–98 |
| Fatmata Janneh | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 68–98 |
 Duquesne | ||||
| Dunja Zecevic | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 67–100 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Duquesne, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Duquesne
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Tennessee
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Duquesne | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 199th | 111.2 18th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.6 231st | 80.5 22nd |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 71st | 76.2 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 237th | 46.4% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.6% 247th | 43.4% 61st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.5% 263rd | 19.1% 1st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 127th | 38.5% 8th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 261st | 0.22 155th |
The widest gap: Tennessee's offense (18th) against Duquesne's defense (231st), of 363 teams.
First half
Tennessee led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 8.1.
- At halftime
- Duquesne 36, Tennessee 51
- Projected halftime score
- Duquesne 30, Tennessee 49
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 18.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Duquesne
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla ViegasG | 37 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| Ayala OrenG | 25 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Nadia MooreG | 25 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Amaya RobinsonG | 25 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Gabby Grantham-MedleyG | 25 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Raevin WashingtonF | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Naya RippeyG | 14 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunja ZecevicG | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maja RohkohlC | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jada EadsG | 23 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Kaylene SmikleG | 21 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 5 |
| Aaliyah MooreF | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Rylie TheuerkaufG | 19 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Gabby MinusG | 18 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Kennedy FauntleroyG | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Zhen CraftF | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Naomi WhiteG | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Fatmata JannehF | 17 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 1 |