Who will win Radford vs Tennessee?
The model gives Tennessee a >99% chance to beat Radford, with a projected score of Tennessee 90, Radford 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee | |||||
| SmikleG · 21 min | 17.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| MinusG · 20 min | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| WhiteG · 18 min | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
| MooreF · 17 min | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
 Radford | |||||
| NiceG · 24 min | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| SimonsenF · 23 min | 10.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| Luebbers PalmerG · 20 min | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 5+ 62% | |
| FieldsG · 25 min | 5.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kaylene Smikle: Radford <1%Tennessee >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Tennessee >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Tennessee without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | ||||
| Kaylene Smikle | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 56–88 |
| Aaliyah Moore | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 56–88 |
| Rylie Theuerkauf | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 55–88 |
| Fatmata Janneh | 3.0 | >99% | 0 | 55–88 |
| Radford | ||||
| Georgia Simonsen | 1.7 | >99% | 0 | 53–91 |
| Angelina Nice | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 53–90 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Radford, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Radford 2-2LWLW
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 78.5 and allowing 53.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Radford | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.8 224th | 111.2 18th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.3 157th | 80.5 22nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 76.2 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.4% 123rd | 46.4% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 166th | 43.4% 61st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 153rd | 19.1% 1st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.6% 142nd | 38.5% 8th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 198th | 0.22 155th |
The widest gap: Tennessee's defense (22nd) against Radford's offense (224th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Radford 24, Tennessee 44
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 20.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- Radford 30, Tennessee 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Radford, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.0 scored, 23.0 allowed
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 30.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Radford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kailyn FieldsG | 25 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 60% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Angelina NiceG | 24 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Cate CarlsonG | 23 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Georgia SimonsenF | 23 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Cherish HaywoodG | 22 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Logan Luebbers PalmerG | 20 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jordin RichardsonG | 17 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Anaiah JenkinsF | 14 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylene SmikleG | 21 | 17.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gabby MinusG | 20 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Kennedy FauntleroyG | 19 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Rylie TheuerkaufG | 19 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jada EadsG | 19 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Fatmata JannehF | 18 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 9+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Naomi WhiteG | 18 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Aaliyah MooreF | 17 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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