Who will win Murray St vs Oregon?
The model gives Oregon a 94% chance to beat Murray State, with a projected score of Oregon 86, Murray St 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | |||||
| EtuteF · 27 min | 16.8 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 60% | |
| FisoG · 31 min | 16.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 15+ 58% | |
| LongG · 28 min | 10.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 55% | |
| HeyerF · 29 min | 10.6 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
 Murray St | |||||
| PoockG · 31 min | 18.4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 20+ 41% | |
| Currie-JelksF · 28 min | 12.3 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| FordG · 28 min | 10.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| JohnsonG · 21 min | 6.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ehis Etute: Murray St 14%Oregon 86%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Ehis Etute | 5.7 | 86% | −8 | 70–83 |
| Katie Fiso | 5.2 | 87% | −7 | 70–83 |
| Ari Long | 3.9 | 89% | −5 | 69–84 |
| Mallory Heyer | 3.9 | 89% | −5 | 69–84 |
| Murray St | ||||
| Sharnecce Currie-Jelks | 3.7 | 97% | +3 | 65–88 |
| Halli Poock | 2.9 | 96% | +2 | 66–87 |
| Haven Ford | 2.7 | 96% | +2 | 66–87 |
| Claire Johnson | 2.1 | 96% | +2 | 66–87 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Murray St, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Murray St 2-2WLLW
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 75.2 and allowing 71.0
Oregon 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 81-56at Vermont
- Nov 9L 74-81at Grand CanyonDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 6W 64-57vs Washington St
- Nov 2W 87-54vs Hawai'i
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 76.5 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Murray St | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 47th | 108.1 24th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.8 213th | 83.7 51st |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 72.4 144th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 96th | 47.2% 82nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 200th | 44.1% 96th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 130th | 21.6% 37th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 166th | 35.9% 52nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 41st | 0.20 244th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (24th) against Murray St's defense (213th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Murray St 31, Oregon 42
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 10.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.7
- Projected second half
- Murray St 36, Oregon 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Murray St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.8 scored, 30.8 allowed
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Murray St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halli PoockG | 31 | 18.4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 3+ ast 55% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Haven FordG | 28 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sharnecce Currie-JelksF | 28 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 9+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Keslyn SecristG | 25 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Sydney HuberG | 23 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Claire JohnsonG | 21 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Katie ReedF | 18 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Destiny ThomasG | 12 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 59% | |||||
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie FisoG | 31 | 16.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mallory HeyerF | 29 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ari LongG | 28 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Ehis EtuteF | 27 | 16.8 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 12+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Avary CainG | 24 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Brooklynn HaywoodG | 21 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kennedy HolmanG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Filippa TillianderF | 10 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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