Who won Hawai'i vs Oregon?
Final: Oregon 87, Hawai'i 54. Before tip-off the model gave Oregon a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 27.7 points for Oregon. Mallory Heyer scored 16 for Oregon; Bailey Flavell had 24 for Hawai'i.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Ehis Etute: Hawai'i 6%Oregon 94%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | ||||
| Ehis Etute | 5.7 | 94% | −4 | 67–89 |
| Katie Fiso | 5.2 | 95% | −3 | 67–89 |
| Ari Long | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 66–90 |
| Mallory Heyer | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 66–90 |
 Hawai'i | ||||
| Ritorya Tamilo | 3.5 | 99% | +1 | 62–94 |
| Bailey Flavell | 1.6 | 98% | 0 | 63–93 |
| Jovi Lefotu | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 64–92 |
| Rebecca Moors | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 64–92 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Hawai'i, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Hawai'i
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Oregon
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Hawai'i | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.0 165th | 108.1 24th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 148th | 83.7 51st |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.4 144th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.7% 159th | 47.2% 82nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 50th | 44.1% 96th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 244th | 21.6% 37th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 222nd | 35.9% 52nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 221st | 0.20 244th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (24th) against Hawai'i's defense (148th), of 363 teams.
First half
Oregon led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 6.1.
- At halftime
- Hawai'i 33, Oregon 47
- Projected halftime score
- Hawai'i 29, Oregon 45
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 15.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Hawai'i
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey FlavellG | 28 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Ritorya TamiloC | 27 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| Rebecca MoorsF | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jovi LefotuG | 23 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Taryn BondG | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Liz UdezeG | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Teyahna BondG | 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Zyriah PriceF | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jade PeacockG | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie FisoG | 30 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| Mallory HeyerF | 29 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Ari LongG | 28 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Brooklynn HaywoodG | 24 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Avary CainG | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ehis EtuteF | 20 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Filippa TillianderF | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Emilia KrstevskiC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kennedy HolmanG | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |