Saint Mary's at Hawai'i
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Stan Sheriff Center. Saint Mary's our rank 279 · 1-2; Hawai'i our rank 160 · 0-2.
Who will win Saint Mary's vs Hawai'i?
The model gives Hawai'i a 87% chance to beat Saint Mary's, with a projected score of Hawai'i 68, Saint Mary's 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | |||||
| FlavellG · 34 min | 18.6 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 20+ 42% | |
| TamiloC · 31 min | 16.7 | 11.6 | 1.0 | 15+ 59% | |
| BondG · 25 min | 6.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 5+ 58% | |
| LefotuG · 25 min | 5.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5+ 56% | |
| Saint Mary's | |||||
| AherneF · 24 min | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| AzouriG · 21 min | 7.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| TounkaraF · 22 min | 6.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 62% | |
| HenleyG · 21 min | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ritorya Tamilo: Saint Mary's 20%Hawai'i 80%
The white mark is the call with her: Hawai'i 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Hawai'i without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i | ||||
| Ritorya Tamilo | 3.5 | 80% | −7 | 56–67 |
| Bailey Flavell | 1.6 | 84% | −3 | 55–67 |
| Jovi Lefotu | 0.6 | 86% | −1 | 54–68 |
| Rebecca Moors | 0.6 | 86% | −1 | 54–68 |
Change is in Hawai'i's win chance, in points. Scores read Saint Mary's, then Hawai'i. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Saint Mary's 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 57.3 and allowing 64.0
Hawai'i 0-2LL
- Nov 5L 79-85at San Francisco
- Nov 2L 54-87at Oregon
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 66.5 and allowing 86.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Saint Mary's | Hawai'i | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 81.7 299th | 91.0 165th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.7 233rd | 92.8 148th |
| Possessions a game | 70.0 338th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 177th | 45.7% 159th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.3% 286th | 43.1% 50th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.0% 324th | 24.2% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 343rd | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 345th | 0.21 221st |
The widest gap: Hawai'i's defense (148th) against Saint Mary's's offense (299th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Saint Mary's 25, Hawai'i 33
- First-half margin
- Hawai'i by 8.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.0
- Projected second half
- Saint Mary's 29, Hawai'i 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Saint Mary's, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Hawai'i, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 33.0 scored, 39.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Saint Mary's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy AherneF | 24 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Abigail ShoffF | 23 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Evelyn TounkaraF | 22 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Charlece OhiaeriG | 22 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Lihi AzouriG | 21 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Niveya HenleyG | 21 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| NaTallia UrlacherG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Addi WedinG | 17 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Hawai'i
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey FlavellG | 34 | 18.6 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ritorya TamiloC | 31 | 16.7 | 11.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 12+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Rebecca MoorsF | 26 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Teyahna BondG | 25 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jovi LefotuG | 25 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Taryn BondG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Zyriah PriceF | 15 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Jade PeacockG | 14 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…