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Probable Stats / Women's / Sunday, November 15

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Saint Mary's v Alabama A&M

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Stan Sheriff Center. Saint Mary's our rank 279 · 1-2; Alabama A&M our rank 329 · 1-2.

Who will win Saint Mary's vs Alabama A&M?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Saint Mary's a 64% chance to beat Alabama A&M, with a projected score of Saint Mary's 61, Alabama A&M 57.

To winSaint Mary's 64%Alabama A&M 36%
Projected score61–57Saint Mary's, then Alabama A&M
Margin4.7Saint Mary's · no line posted
Total118.2no line posted
First half29–27Saint Mary's ahead 59%
Saint Mary's by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Alabama A&M by 30Model: Saint Mary's by 4.7Saint Mary's by 30by 10by 10Alabama A&M by 30Model: Saint Mary's by 4.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Saint Mary's
AherneF · 24 min9.54.11.710+ 44%
AzouriG · 21 min8.82.01.010+ 39%
TounkaraF · 22 min7.54.61.25+ 69%
HenleyG · 21 min6.22.61.25+ 58%
Alabama A&M
NicholsonF · 28 min8.28.50.610+ 35%
WhiteG · 27 min7.42.52.05+ 68%
WimberlyG · 20 min5.82.11.05+ 55%
MurrayG · 21 min5.63.61.35+ 52%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Saint Mary's 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 10W 81-44vs Chico State
    2. Nov 7L 37-61at Air Force
    3. Nov 4L 54-87at Stanford
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 57.3 and allowing 64.0

    Alabama A&M 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 9W 81-61vs Miles
    2. Nov 5L 43-96at Alabama
    3. Nov 2L 53-59vs Talladega
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 59.0 and allowing 72.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Saint Mary'sAlabama A&M
    Points scored per 100 possessions81.7 299th78.0 336th
    Points allowed per 10096.7 233rd99.1 283rd
    Possessions a game70.0 338th71.5 225th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.5% 177th44.4% 260th
    Opponents' shooting47.3% 286th48.7% 334th
    Turnovers, share of possessions26.0% 324th23.7% 198th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses29.1% 343rd31.3% 264th
    Free throws per shot0.18 345th0.21 199th

    The widest gap: Saint Mary's's defense (233rd) against Alabama A&M's offense (336th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Saint Mary's 29, Alabama A&M 27
    First-half margin
    Saint Mary's by 2.7
    First-half points, both teams
    56.1
    Projected second half
    Saint Mary's 32, Alabama A&M 30
    Second-half points, both teams
    62.2
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Saint Mary's, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
    Alabama A&M, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 28.7 scored, 34.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Saint Mary's

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Lucy AherneF249.54.11.71.1
    10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47%
    Abigail ShoffF235.73.80.90.5
    5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 36%
    Evelyn TounkaraF227.54.61.20.4
    5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 31%
    Charlece OhiaeriG224.73.81.30.4
    5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 35%
    Lihi AzouriG218.82.01.01.3
    10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 36%
    Niveya HenleyG216.22.61.21.0
    5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57%
    NaTallia UrlacherG185.23.00.90.3
    5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 23%
    Addi WedinG173.61.70.60.4
    5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34%

    Alabama A&M

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Asianae NicholsonF288.28.50.60.0
    10+ pts 35% · 9+ reb 46%
    Skylar WhiteG277.42.52.00.6
    5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 56%
    Alisha MurrayG215.63.61.30.3
    5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 35%
    Tazi HarrisF205.03.50.70.1
    5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 16%
    Vanessa WimberlyG205.82.11.00.7
    5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48%
    Kalea RaineyG174.41.50.90.3
    5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 28%
    Miracle AkpotayoboF173.63.20.60.1
    5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57%
    Janessa KelleyG175.50.90.31.0
    5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 23% · 1+ threes 58%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    Saint Mary's next: at Hawai'i, Fri, Nov 13 · 13%Alabama A&M next: vs LMU, Fri, Nov 13 · 4%Saint Mary's: schedule and oddsAlabama A&M: schedule and odds