Who will win LMU vs Hawai'i?
The model gives Loyola Marymount a 61% chance to beat Hawai'i, with a projected score of LMU 68, Hawai'i 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LMU | |||||
| HernandezF · 22 min | 12.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 63% | |
| NordstromG · 26 min | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 10+ 62% | |
| JonesF · 21 min | 9.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 44% | |
| PowellG · 19 min | 9.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 42% | |
 Hawai'i | |||||
| FlavellG · 36 min | 18.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 20+ 41% | |
| TamiloC · 32 min | 16.5 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 15+ 58% | |
| BondG · 26 min | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 5+ 57% | |
| LefotuG · 25 min | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Maya Hernandez: LMU 52%Hawai'i 48%
The white mark is the call with her: LMU 61%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | LMU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMU | ||||
| Maya Hernandez | 2.8 | 52% | −9 | 67–66 |
| Shawnee Nordstrom | 1.8 | 56% | −5 | 68–66 |
| Kayla Jones | 1.6 | 56% | −5 | 68–66 |
| Danae Powell | 1.5 | 56% | −5 | 68–66 |
| Hawai'i | ||||
| Ritorya Tamilo | 3.5 | 71% | +10 | 70–63 |
| Bailey Flavell | 1.6 | 66% | +5 | 69–64 |
| Jovi Lefotu | 0.6 | 63% | +2 | 69–65 |
| Rebecca Moors | 0.6 | 63% | +2 | 69–65 |
Change is in LMU's win chance, in points. Scores read LMU, then Hawai'i. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
LMU 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 118-37vs La Sierra
- Nov 6W 70-45at Utah State
- Nov 2W 89-64vs Nevada
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 92.3 and allowing 48.7
Hawai'i 0-2LL
- Nov 5L 79-85at San Francisco
- Nov 2L 54-87at Oregon
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 66.5 and allowing 86.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| LMU | Hawai'i | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.3 88th | 91.0 165th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.6 118th | 92.8 148th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.9% 99th | 45.7% 159th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 226th | 43.1% 50th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 100th | 24.2% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.9% 125th | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 140th | 0.21 221st |
The widest gap: LMU's offense (88th) against Hawai'i's defense (148th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- LMU 33, Hawai'i 31
- First-half margin
- LMU by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- LMU 36, Hawai'i 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- LMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
- Hawai'i, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 33.0 scored, 39.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
LMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnee NordstromG | 26 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maya HernandezF | 22 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Kayla JonesF | 21 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Allison ClarkeG | 21 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ivana KrajinaG | 20 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 39% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Danae PowellG | 19 | 9.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Sarah DengG | 19 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Ali'a MatavaoF | 14 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Hawai'i
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey FlavellG | 36 | 18.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ritorya TamiloC | 32 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 12+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Rebecca MoorsF | 27 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Teyahna BondG | 26 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jovi LefotuG | 25 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Taryn BondG | 18 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Zyriah PriceF | 15 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Jade PeacockG | 13 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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