Who won Nevada vs LMU?
Final: Loyola Marymount 89, Nevada 64. Before tip-off the model gave Loyola Marymount a 81% chance to win, with a projected margin of 12.1 points for Loyola Marymount. Shawnee Nordstrom scored 17 for LMU; Aili Tanke had 18 for Nevada.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Maya Hernandez: Nevada 25%LMU 75%
The white mark is the call with her: LMU 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | LMU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 LMU | ||||
| Maya Hernandez | 2.8 | 75% | −6 | 73–82 |
| Shawnee Nordstrom | 1.8 | 77% | −4 | 73–83 |
| Kayla Jones | 1.6 | 78% | −3 | 73–83 |
| Danae Powell | 1.5 | 78% | −3 | 73–83 |
Change is in LMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Nevada, then LMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nevada | LMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.0 251st | 98.3 88th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.8 309th | 90.6 118th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 133rd | 46.9% 99th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 313th | 46.2% 226th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 265th | 22.5% 100th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 260th | 33.9% 125th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 159th | 0.22 140th |
The widest gap: LMU's offense (88th) against Nevada's defense (309th), of 363 teams.
First half
LMU led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.0 points and the total by 3.8.
- At halftime
- Nevada 30, LMU 40
- Projected halftime score
- Nevada 33, LMU 40
- First-half margin
- LMU by 7.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahaila HarrisonG | 28 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sierra ChambersG | 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Aili TankeG | 25 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Alexis SwillisC | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Olivia PoulivaatiF | 20 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Izzy SullivanG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Delaney ArredondoG | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Amelia RaidavetaF | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hanna JolinderG | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
LMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allison ClarkeG | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Shawnee NordstromG | 28 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Maya HernandezF | 26 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ivana KrajinaG | 25 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Kayla JonesF | 23 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Ali'a MatavaoF | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sarah DengG | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danae PowellG | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Erica FinneyG | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |