Nevada at Utah Valley
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at UCCU Center. Nevada our rank 273 · 1-2; Utah Valley our rank 181 · 1-1.
Who will win Nevada vs Utah Valley?
The model gives Utah Valley a 85% chance to beat Nevada, with a projected score of Utah Valley 69, Nevada 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Valley | |||||
| GentryF · 28 min | 12.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| BlackhamG · 32 min | 10.2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| ClarkG · 21 min | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| JohnsonF · 23 min | 7.7 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| Nevada | |||||
| ChambersG · 29 min | 9.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| HarrisonG · 24 min | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 36% | |
| TankeG · 26 min | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
| SwillisC · 22 min | 6.2 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Elizabeth Gentry: Nevada 18%Utah Valley 82%
The white mark is the call with her: Utah Valley 85%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Utah Valley without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Valley | ||||
| Elizabeth Gentry | 1.5 | 82% | −3 | 57–69 |
| Cambree Blackham | 0.9 | 83% | −2 | 56–69 |
| Lauren Johnson | 0.7 | 84% | −1 | 56–69 |
Change is in Utah Valley's win chance, in points. Scores read Nevada, then Utah Valley. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Nevada 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 84-51vs Jessup
- Nov 7L 60-70vs Sacramento St
- Nov 2L 64-89at LMU
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.3 and allowing 70.0
Utah Valley 1-1WL
- Nov 7L 62-64vs Santa Clara
- Nov 3W 85-32vs Park University Gilbert
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 73.5 and allowing 48.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Nevada | Utah Valley | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.0 251st | 83.8 273rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.8 309th | 88.4 83rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 133rd | 44.3% 261st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 313th | 44.6% 128th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 265th | 23.8% 204th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 260th | 31.0% 280th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 159th | 0.21 188th |
The widest gap: Utah Valley's defense (83rd) against Nevada's offense (251st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Nevada 26, Utah Valley 34
- First-half margin
- Utah Valley by 7.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.4
- Projected second half
- Nevada 30, Utah Valley 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Nevada, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Utah Valley, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 32.0 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra ChambersG | 29 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Aili TankeG | 26 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Mahaila HarrisonG | 24 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Alexis SwillisC | 22 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 48% to play · 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
| Olivia PoulivaatiF | 20 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Izzy SullivanG | 17 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Amelia RaidavetaF | 15 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Hanna JolinderG | 13 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Alexis Swillis (26 min a game).
Utah Valley
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambree BlackhamG | 32 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Elizabeth GentryF | 28 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Naia TanuvasaG | 26 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Lauren JohnsonF | 23 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Tabi ClarkG | 21 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Maren McKennaG | 19 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Anna ShreeveG | 18 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Olivia StephensG | 11 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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