Pepperdine at Nevada
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Lawlor Events Center. Pepperdine our rank 146 · 2-1; Nevada our rank 273 · 1-2.
Who will win Pepperdine vs Nevada?
The model gives Pepperdine a 77% chance to beat Nevada, with a projected score of Pepperdine 68, Nevada 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine | |||||
| GuineyG · 32 min | 16.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 15+ 57% | |
| FalkG · 30 min | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| HarmonG · 26 min | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 10+ 32% | |
| MendelsonC · 25 min | 7.5 | 8.7 | 1.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| Nevada | |||||
| ChambersG · 29 min | 9.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| HarrisonG · 24 min | 8.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| TankeG · 26 min | 6.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 64% | |
| SwillisC · 22 min | 6.5 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Elli Guiney: Pepperdine 69%Nevada 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Pepperdine 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Pepperdine without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Elli Guiney | 2.7 | 69% | −8 | 67–60 |
| Lina Falk | 1.5 | 73% | −4 | 67–60 |
| Taija Sta. Maria | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 68–59 |
| Seleh Harmon | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 68–59 |
Change is in Pepperdine's win chance, in points. Scores read Pepperdine, then Nevada. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pepperdine 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 83-65vs Cal State Dominguez Hills
- Nov 5L 54-58vs Santa Barbara
- Nov 2W 59-43at Portland St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 65.3 and allowing 55.3
Nevada 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 84-51vs Jessup
- Nov 7L 60-70vs Sacramento St
- Nov 2L 64-89at LMU
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.3 and allowing 70.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pepperdine | Nevada | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.2 214th | 86.0 251st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.2 80th | 100.8 309th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.8% 222nd | 46.2% 133rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.6% 8th | 48.0% 313th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 309th | 24.6% 265th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.1% 75th | 31.3% 260th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 142nd | 0.22 159th |
The widest gap: Pepperdine's defense (80th) against Nevada's offense (251st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pepperdine 33, Nevada 27
- First-half margin
- Pepperdine by 5.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.1
- Projected second half
- Pepperdine 35, Nevada 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pepperdine, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 26.7 allowed
- Nevada, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elli GuineyG | 32 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Lina FalkG | 30 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Taija Sta. MariaG | 29 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Seleh HarmonG | 26 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Maggie MendelsonC | 25 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 9+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Keandra KooritsG | 18 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Zoe ShanahanF | 12 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra ChambersG | 29 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Aili TankeG | 26 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Mahaila HarrisonG | 24 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Alexis SwillisC | 22 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 48% to play · 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Olivia PoulivaatiF | 20 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Izzy SullivanG | 17 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Amelia RaidavetaF | 15 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Hanna JolinderG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Alexis Swillis (26 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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