Washington at Washington St
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 10:30 PM ET at Beasley Coliseum. Washington AP 16, our rank 35 · 3-0; Washington St our rank 81 · 1-2.
Who will win Washington vs Washington St?
The model gives Washington a 68% chance to beat Washington State, with a projected score of Washington 67, Washington St 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | |||||
| HowellG · 31 min | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 15+ 48% | |
| SellersG · 28 min | 13.7 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 15+ 41% | |
| McGaughyF · 27 min | 10.1 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| TryggerF · 23 min | 7.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| Washington St | |||||
| VillaG · 36 min | 17.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 20+ 37% | |
| CovillC · 19 min | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| RuudF · 18 min | 7.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 5+ 68% | |
| ChatfieldG · 31 min | 6.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Avery Howell: Washington 52%Washington St 48%
The white mark is the call with her: Washington 68%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Washington without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | ||||
| Avery Howell | 5.2 | 52% | −16 | 64–64 |
| Sayvia Sellers | 4.8 | 53% | −15 | 65–64 |
| Brynn McGaughy | 3.6 | 57% | −11 | 65–63 |
| Tilda Trygger | 3.3 | 58% | −10 | 65–63 |
| Washington St | ||||
| Eleonora Villa | 3.7 | 78% | +10 | 69–59 |
| Charlotte Abraham | 2.2 | 74% | +6 | 68–60 |
| Mackenzie Chatfield | 1.9 | 73% | +5 | 68–60 |
| Malia Ruud | 1.8 | 73% | +5 | 68–60 |
Change is in Washington's win chance, in points. Scores read Washington, then Washington St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Washington 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 85-51vs BakersfieldDidn't cover −42.5 · Over 131.5
- Nov 5W 75-54vs Pacific
- Nov 2W 79-63vs UC San Diego
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 56.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Washington St 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 63.7 and allowing 65.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Washington | Washington St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.8 43rd | 96.7 102nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 80.1 20th | 86.0 60th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 77th | 46.2% 131st |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 191st | 43.5% 63rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 226th | 21.1% 24th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 222nd | 30.1% 311th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 131st | 0.17 347th |
The widest gap: Washington's defense (20th) against Washington St's offense (102nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Washington 32, Washington St 29
- First-half margin
- Washington by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.7
- Projected second half
- Washington 35, Washington St 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Washington, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 25.7 allowed
- Washington St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Washington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery HowellG | 31 | 14.8 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Sayvia SellersG | 28 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Devin CoppingerG | 28 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Brynn McGaughyF | 27 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Tilda TryggerF | 23 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Amayah GarciaG | 19 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Brooke CarlsonG | 18 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 39% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kaelyn CarrollF | 14 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kaelyn Carroll (18 min a game).
Washington St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eleonora VillaG | 36 | 17.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mackenzie ChatfieldG | 31 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Tanja ValancicF | 30 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Charlotte AbrahamG | 24 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Alex CovillC | 19 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Malia RuudF | 18 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Aicha BahG | 16 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Malvina HaziriG | 13 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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