UC San Diego 63, Washington 79
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena. UC San Diego our rank 135 · 2-1; Washington AP 16, our rank 35 · 3-0.
Who won UC San Diego vs Washington?
Final: Washington 79, UC San Diego 63. Before tip-off the model gave Washington a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 26.9 points for Washington. Sayvia Sellers scored 25 for Washington; Coryn Watts had 15 for UC San Diego.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Avery Howell: UC San Diego 6%Washington 94%
The white mark is the call with her: Washington 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Washington without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | ||||
| Avery Howell | 5.2 | 94% | −3 | 69–91 |
| Sayvia Sellers | 4.8 | 95% | −2 | 69–91 |
| Brynn McGaughy | 3.6 | 95% | −2 | 69–92 |
| Tilda Trygger | 3.3 | 96% | −1 | 68–92 |
| UC San Diego | ||||
| Lev Feiman | 1.8 | 98% | +1 | 66–95 |
| Dymonique Maxie | 1.5 | 98% | +1 | 66–95 |
| Rosa Smith | 1.1 | 98% | +1 | 66–94 |
| Michaela Fairwell | 0.5 | 98% | +1 | 67–94 |
Change is in Washington's win chance, in points. Scores read UC San Diego, then Washington. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
UC San Diego
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Washington
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC San Diego | Washington | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.0 104th | 103.8 43rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.9 191st | 80.1 20th |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 110th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 68th | 47.3% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 203rd | 45.7% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 2nd | 24.0% 226th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.2% 340th | 32.0% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 360th | 0.22 131st |
The widest gap: Washington's offense (43rd) against UC San Diego's defense (191st), of 363 teams.
First half
It was tied at the half. The margin was off by 15.5 points and the total by 14.2.
- At halftime
- UC San Diego 31, Washington 31
- Projected halftime score
- UC San Diego 30, Washington 46
- First-half margin
- Washington by 15.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UC San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coryn WattsG | 38 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Erin CondronF | 31 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Dymonique MaxieG | 26 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Sadie SinG | 25 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Alexandra CumminsG | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Lev FeimanG | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Emma CookG | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosa SmithG | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Noelle MulvannyG | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Washington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery HowellG | 33 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Sayvia SellersG | 33 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 3 |
| Brynn McGaughyF | 27 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| Kaelyn CarrollF | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tilda TryggerF | 22 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin CoppingerG | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Amayah GarciaG | 22 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooke CarlsonG | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Macey HuardG | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |