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Probable Stats / Women's / Sunday, November 15

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San Francisco at UC San Diego

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at LionTree Arena. San Francisco our rank 123 · 2-1; UC San Diego our rank 135 · 2-1.

Who will win San Francisco vs UC San Diego?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives San Francisco a 54% chance to beat UC San Diego, with a projected score of San Francisco 74, UC San Diego 73.

To winSan Francisco 54%UC San Diego 46%
Projected score74–73San Francisco, then UC San Diego
Margin1.1San Francisco · no line posted
Total146.7no line posted
First half35–34San Francisco ahead 51%
San Francisco by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20UC San Diego by 30Model: San Francisco by 1.1San Francisco by 30by 10by 10UC San Diego by 30Model: San Francisco by 1.1

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
San Francisco
EdokpaigbeG · 34 min18.33.31.920+ 40%
CargolG · 36 min13.64.15.815+ 40%
YenesF · 22 min10.95.51.810+ 55%
MiG · 23 min10.23.33.010+ 50%
UC San Diego
WattsG · 32 min17.03.22.515+ 60%
CondronF · 36 min16.88.22.215+ 59%
FeimanG · 33 min14.33.82.415+ 45%
SinG · 33 min13.23.92.715+ 38%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Candy Edokpaigbe: San Francisco 42%UC San Diego 58%

The white mark is the call with her: San Francisco 54%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsSan Francisco without herChangeProjected score
San Francisco
Candy Edokpaigbe3.242%−1272–74
Aina Cargol1.549%−573–74
Noelia Mourino1.150%−473–73
Lucia Yenes1.050%−473–73
UC San Diego
Lev Feiman1.861%+775–72
Dymonique Maxie1.560%+675–72
Rosa Smith1.158%+474–72
Michaela Fairwell0.556%+274–73

Change is in San Francisco's win chance, in points. Scores read San Francisco, then UC San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    San Francisco 2-1WLW

    1. Nov 11W 77-70at Air Force
    2. Nov 8L 65-87vs California
    3. Nov 5W 85-79vs Hawai'i
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 75.7 and allowing 78.7

    UC San Diego 2-1LWW

    1. Nov 12W 78-64vs Portland St
    2. Nov 7W 90-88vs San Diego
    3. Nov 2L 63-79at Washington
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 77.0 and allowing 77.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    San FranciscoUC San Diego
    Points scored per 100 possessions95.7 108th96.0 104th
    Points allowed per 10092.9 151st94.9 191st
    Possessions a game74.8 16th72.8 110th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)46.0% 140th47.6% 68th
    Opponents' shooting46.6% 252nd45.8% 203rd
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.6% 108th19.7% 2nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.1% 221st29.2% 340th
    Free throws per shot0.21 191st0.16 360th

    The widest gap: San Francisco's offense (108th) against UC San Diego's defense (191st), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    San Francisco 35, UC San Diego 34
    First-half margin
    San Francisco by 0.7
    First-half points, both teams
    69.5
    Projected second half
    San Francisco 39, UC San Diego 38
    Second-half points, both teams
    77.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    San Francisco, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 37.3 allowed
    UC San Diego, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    San Francisco

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Aina CargolG3613.64.15.81.2
    15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 54% · 6+ ast 51%
    Candy EdokpaigbeG3418.33.31.91.1
    20+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 53%
    Maria BurligaG248.65.51.40.5
    10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 39%
    Savi MiG2310.23.33.01.4
    10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 55%
    Lucia YenesF2210.95.51.80.7
    10+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 49%
    Noelia MourinoF175.16.22.10.0
    5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 58%
    Keiryn McGuffG165.03.40.60.5
    5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 37%
    Natasa TausovaF134.42.50.80.6
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42%

    UC San Diego

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Erin CondronF3616.88.22.20.8
    43% to play · 15+ pts 59% · 8+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52%
    Sadie SinG3313.23.92.72.0
    15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 48%
    Lev FeimanG3314.33.82.40.7
    15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 46%
    Coryn WattsG3217.03.22.52.7
    22% to play · 15+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 47%
    Dymonique MaxieG309.53.43.90.6
    10+ pts 45% · 4+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 44%
    Alexandra CumminsG266.92.01.91.5
    5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53%
    Rosa SmithG267.72.62.11.1
    10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 59%
    Michaela FairwellG208.03.21.50.5
    10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 43%

    Missed the last game: Erin Condron (38 min a game) and Coryn Watts (38 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 68-67Montana St at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    San Francisco next: vs Long Beach St, Thu, Nov 19 · 98%San Francisco: schedule and oddsUC San Diego: schedule and odds