Long Beach St at San Francisco
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at The Sobrato Center. Long Beach St our rank 332 · 0-2; San Francisco our rank 123 · 2-1.
Who will win Long Beach St vs San Francisco?
The model gives San Francisco a 98% chance to beat Long Beach State, with a projected score of San Francisco 85, Long Beach St 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | |||||
| EdokpaigbeG · 31 min | 18.4 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 20+ 41% | |
| CargolG · 32 min | 13.6 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| YenesF · 21 min | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| MiG · 22 min | 11.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 10+ 56% | |
| Long Beach St | |||||
| ArvaiF · 30 min | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| BerryF · 25 min | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| FurchG · 26 min | 8.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| Taylor-SmithG · 22 min | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Candy Edokpaigbe: Long Beach St 4%San Francisco 96%
The white mark is the call with her: San Francisco 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Francisco without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | ||||
| Candy Edokpaigbe | 3.2 | 96% | −2 | 62–83 |
| Aina Cargol | 1.5 | 97% | −1 | 61–84 |
| Noelia Mourino | 1.1 | 97% | −1 | 61–84 |
| Lucia Yenes | 1.0 | 97% | −1 | 61–84 |
Change is in San Francisco's win chance, in points. Scores read Long Beach St, then San Francisco. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Long Beach St 0-2LL
- Nov 9L 70-89vs Santa Clara
- Nov 5L 46-100at California
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 58.0 and allowing 94.5
San Francisco 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.7 and allowing 78.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Long Beach St | San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 84.8 266th | 95.7 108th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.5 356th | 92.9 151st |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 74.8 16th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 190th | 46.0% 140th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.9% 309th | 46.6% 252nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 187th | 22.6% 108th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 186th | 32.1% 221st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 349th | 0.21 191st |
The widest gap: San Francisco's offense (108th) against Long Beach St's defense (356th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Long Beach St 27, San Francisco 41
- First-half margin
- San Francisco by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- Long Beach St 33, San Francisco 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Long Beach St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 29.5 scored, 47.5 allowed
- San Francisco, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 37.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Long Beach St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noemi ArvaiF | 30 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Amber FurchG | 26 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kailyn BerryF | 25 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Lucia Chico FernandezG | 24 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Danijela KujovicF | 22 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ebony Taylor-SmithG | 22 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Rosie AkotF | 22 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ashanti DiasG | 16 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 47% to play · 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
San Francisco
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aina CargolG | 32 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 54% · 7+ ast 44% | |||||
| Candy EdokpaigbeG | 31 | 18.4 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Maria BurligaG | 23 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Savi MiG | 22 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Lucia YenesF | 21 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Noelia MourinoF | 18 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Keiryn McGuffG | 17 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Natasa TausovaF | 14 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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