Who will win Marquette vs Wisconsin?
The model gives Wisconsin a 87% chance to beat Marquette, with a projected score of Wisconsin 77, Marquette 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | |||||
| MallegniG · 24 min | 14.2 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 15+ 44% | |
| DealG · 25 min | 12.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 64% | |
| ShepleeG · 23 min | 9.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| CourthiauG · 24 min | 8.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 34% | |
 Marquette | |||||
| ViceF · 27 min | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| GivensG · 24 min | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| Han LinG · 20 min | 9.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| AspG · 26 min | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Addie Deal: Marquette 21%Wisconsin 79%
The white mark is the call with her: Wisconsin 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Wisconsin without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | ||||
| Addie Deal | 3.9 | 79% | −8 | 65–75 |
| Teagan Mallegni | 3.7 | 79% | −8 | 65–75 |
| Shay Bollin | 2.7 | 81% | −6 | 65–75 |
| Laci Steele | 2.5 | 82% | −5 | 64–76 |
| Marquette | ||||
| Halle Vice | 3.8 | 92% | +5 | 61–79 |
| Kayl Petersen | 2.5 | 91% | +4 | 62–78 |
| MacKenzie Givens | 2.1 | 90% | +3 | 62–78 |
| Jordan Meulemans | 1.2 | 89% | +2 | 63–77 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Marquette, then Wisconsin. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marquette 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 87-54vs Presbyterian
- Nov 7L 79-87vs MinnesotaCovered +12.5 · Over 134.5
- Nov 3W 80-42vs Miss Valley St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 61.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marquette | Wisconsin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.0 81st | 104.8 41st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.0 121st | 85.3 58th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.6 129th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 24th | 48.7% 29th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 131st | 44.9% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.5% 259th | 22.0% 58th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 121st | 32.6% 192nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 92nd | 0.18 343rd |
The widest gap: Wisconsin's offense (41st) against Marquette's defense (121st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marquette 29, Wisconsin 37
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 7.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.4
- Projected second half
- Marquette 34, Wisconsin 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marquette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Wisconsin, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.2 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halle ViceF | 27 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kinley AspG | 26 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jordan MeulemansG | 25 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 26% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Kayl PetersenF | 25 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| MacKenzie GivensG | 24 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Yu Han LinG | 20 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Brooklyn HallG | 18 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Amina TraoreC | 14 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie DealG | 25 | 12.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Alicia CourthiauG | 24 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Teagan MallegniG | 24 | 14.2 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Adaline ShepleeG | 23 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Laci SteeleG | 21 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Shay BollinG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Nikki KersteinPG | 19 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Caia RoseG | 18 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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