Who will win Army vs UMass?
The model gives Massachusetts a 63% chance to beat Army, with a projected score of UMass 68, Army 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMass | |||||
| McKayleG · 36 min | 13.8 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| FranksG · 32 min | 11.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| DotseyF · 25 min | 10.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| PerkinsG · 27 min | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 38% | |
 Army | |||||
| SmithF · 31 min | 16.3 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 15+ 57% | |
| TadeG · 34 min | 13.0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| ReardonF · 23 min | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| WilsonG · 28 min | 7.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Yahmani McKayle: Army 45%UMass 55%
The white mark is the call with her: UMass 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UMass without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | ||||
| Yahmani McKayle | 2.4 | 55% | −8 | 65–67 |
| Ayanna Franks | 1.7 | 58% | −5 | 65–67 |
| Caroline Dotsey | 1.7 | 58% | −5 | 65–67 |
| Chinenye Odenigbo | 1.6 | 58% | −5 | 65–67 |
| Army | ||||
| Kya Smith | 3.6 | 73% | +10 | 62–70 |
| Camryn Tade | 2.9 | 71% | +8 | 63–70 |
| Taylor Wilson | 1.1 | 66% | +3 | 64–69 |
| Reganne Reardon | 1.1 | 66% | +3 | 64–69 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read Army, then UMass. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Army 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 80-75vs George Mason
- Nov 5W 81-56at Brown
- Nov 2W 81-28vs St. Thomas Aquinas
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 80.7 and allowing 53.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Army | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.5 94th | 95.0 116th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.4 137th | 89.9 106th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 341st | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.7% 58th | 44.7% 229th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.2% 107th | 46.4% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 102nd | 23.2% 160th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 262nd | 36.0% 47th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 44th | 0.21 197th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Army 30, UMass 33
- First-half margin
- UMass by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Projected second half
- Army 34, UMass 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Army, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 21.0 allowed
- UMass, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn TadeG | 34 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kya SmithF | 31 | 16.3 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 9+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Fiona HastickG | 29 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Brooke WilsonG | 28 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Taylor WilsonG | 28 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Reganne ReardonF | 23 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Audrey AnneeG | 16 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahmani McKayleG | 36 | 13.8 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ayanna FranksG | 32 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Aiyanna PerkinsG | 27 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Caroline DotseyF | 25 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jess RossF | 23 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Chinenye OdenigboC | 19 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Taylor DerkackG | 16 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Alba CaballeroF | 12 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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