C Connecticut at UMass
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Mullins Center. C Connecticut our rank 361 · 0-4; UMass our rank 104 · 1-2.
Who will win C Connecticut vs UMass?
The model gives Massachusetts a >99% chance to beat Central Connecticut, with a projected score of UMass 81, C Connecticut 46.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | |||||
| McKayleG · 30 min | 13.7 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 15+ 41% | |
| FranksG · 28 min | 11.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| DotseyF · 23 min | 11.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| PerkinsG · 25 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 42% | |
| C Connecticut | |||||
| DinglerG · 27 min | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 35% | |
| VrcanG · 22 min | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 55% | |
| SalamoneG · 23 min | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 47% | |
| McKelveyC · 17 min | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 5+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Yahmani McKayle: C Connecticut <1%UMass >99%
The white mark is the call with her: UMass >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UMass without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | ||||
| Yahmani McKayle | 2.4 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
| Ayanna Franks | 1.7 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
| Caroline Dotsey | 1.7 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
| Chinenye Odenigbo | 1.6 | >99% | 0 | 47–80 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read C Connecticut, then UMass. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Connecticut 0-4LLLL
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 46.5 and allowing 69.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Connecticut | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 71.6 359th | 95.0 116th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.6 352nd | 89.9 106th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 328th | 44.7% 229th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 304th | 46.4% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 27.1% 346th | 23.2% 160th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.8% 324th | 36.0% 47th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 333rd | 0.21 197th |
The widest gap: UMass's defense (106th) against C Connecticut's offense (359th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Connecticut 20, UMass 40
- First-half margin
- UMass by 20.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.2
- Projected second half
- C Connecticut 26, UMass 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Connecticut, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 21.0 scored, 31.2 allowed
- UMass, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Connecticut
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jill DinglerG | 27 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Liana SalamoneG | 23 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Valentina VrcanG | 22 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Nicora PatrickG | 19 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Taryn CampbellF | 18 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
| Na-Kyah WilliamsG | 18 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Nyasia McKelveyC | 17 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Christa RamosG | 17 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahmani McKayleG | 30 | 13.7 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 5+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ayanna FranksG | 28 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Aiyanna PerkinsG | 25 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Caroline DotseyF | 23 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jess RossF | 21 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Chinenye OdenigboC | 19 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Taylor DerkackG | 17 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Alba CaballeroF | 14 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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