Who won Marshall vs UMass?
Final: Marshall 74, Massachusetts 70. Before tip-off the model gave Marshall a 24% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 9.5 points for Massachusetts. Olivia Olson scored 17 for Marshall; Caroline Dotsey had 19 for UMass.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Yahmani McKayle: Marshall 30%UMass 70%
The white mark is the call with her: UMass 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UMass without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMass | ||||
| Yahmani McKayle | 2.4 | 70% | −6 | 75–82 |
| Ayanna Franks | 1.7 | 71% | −5 | 75–83 |
| Caroline Dotsey | 1.7 | 72% | −4 | 75–83 |
| Chinenye Odenigbo | 1.6 | 72% | −4 | 75–83 |
 Marshall | ||||
| Ni'Kiah Chesterfield | 2.0 | 80% | +4 | 73–85 |
| Olivia Olson | 1.9 | 80% | +4 | 73–85 |
| Maddie Moody | 1.5 | 79% | +3 | 73–84 |
| Kassie Ingram | 1.4 | 79% | +3 | 73–84 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read Marshall, then UMass. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Marshall
No games yet this season: this is its first.
UMass
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marshall | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 117th | 95.0 116th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.0 152nd | 89.9 106th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 130th | 44.7% 229th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.8% 37th | 46.4% 236th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 268th | 23.2% 160th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 100th | 36.0% 47th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 19th | 0.21 197th |
The widest gap: UMass's offense (116th) against Marshall's defense (152nd), of 363 teams.
First half
Marshall led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 16.5 points and the total by 5.7.
- At halftime
- Marshall 40, UMass 29
- Projected halftime score
- Marshall 35, UMass 40
- First-half margin
- UMass by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassie GallagherG | 34 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Paris GilmoreG | 33 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Olivia OlsonG | 28 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Kassie IngramG | 28 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ni'Kiah ChesterfieldF | 25 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Leyocha MarigneyF | 19 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Anaya HarrisG | 15 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Maddie MoodyF | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emily BrattonG | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahmani McKayleG | 36 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Caroline DotseyF | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Ayanna FranksG | 27 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Aiyanna PerkinsG | 23 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Taylor DerkackG | 23 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Jess RossF | 20 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Reagan HurstG | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chinenye OdenigboC | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alba CaballeroF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |