Pepperdine 59, Portland St 43
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Viking Pavilion. Pepperdine our rank 146 · 2-1; Portland St our rank 297 · 0-4.
Who won Pepperdine vs Portland St?
Final: Pepperdine 59, Portland State 43. Before tip-off the model gave Pepperdine a 75% chance to win, with a projected margin of 9.4 points for Pepperdine. Maggie Mendelson scored 17 for Pepperdine; Teagan Colvin had 12 for Portland St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Elli Guiney: Pepperdine 69%Portland St 31%
The white mark is the call with her: Pepperdine 75%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Pepperdine without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine | ||||
| Elli Guiney | 2.7 | 69% | −6 | 85–78 |
| Lina Falk | 1.5 | 72% | −3 | 85–77 |
| Taija Sta. Maria | 0.8 | 73% | −2 | 86–77 |
| Seleh Harmon | 0.8 | 73% | −2 | 86–77 |
| Portland St | ||||
| Sara Barhoum | 0.7 | 77% | +2 | 86–76 |
Change is in Pepperdine's win chance, in points. Scores read Pepperdine, then Portland St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Pepperdine
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Portland St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pepperdine | Portland St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.2 214th | 87.8 223rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.2 80th | 104.6 345th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 71.3 251st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.8% 222nd | 41.9% 340th |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.6% 8th | 48.1% 317th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 309th | 21.5% 32nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.1% 75th | 36.2% 45th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 142nd | 0.22 113th |
The widest gap: Pepperdine's defense (80th) against Portland St's offense (223rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Pepperdine led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 32.1.
- At halftime
- Pepperdine 26, Portland St 19
- Projected halftime score
- Pepperdine 41, Portland St 36
- First-half margin
- Pepperdine by 5.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Pepperdine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie MendelsonC | 31 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
| Elli GuineyG | 30 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Seleh HarmonG | 30 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Taija Sta. MariaG | 27 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Lina FalkG | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zoe ShanahanF | 20 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Keandra KooritsG | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Ilinca BeleganteG | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evelyn MartynC | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teagan ColvinG | 35 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyleigh BrownG | 31 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kirstine MunkF | 27 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| Laynee Torres-KahapeaG | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Nihoa DunnF | 26 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Emma ZunigaF | 26 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Sara BarhoumG | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Liv CollinsG | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |