Portland St at San José St
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center. Portland St our rank 297 · 0-4; San José St our rank 303 · 0-2.
Who will win Portland St vs San José St?
The model gives San José State a 61% chance to beat Portland State, with a projected score of San José St 70, Portland St 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | |||||
| MaceG · 29 min | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| RodriguezG · 24 min | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| BlacklockG · 29 min | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 40% | |
| BlagroveG · 26 min | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 33% | |
| Portland St | |||||
| BrownG · 35 min | 16.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 15+ 55% | |
| ColvinG · 36 min | 12.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| Torres-KahapeaG · 33 min | 8.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 10+ 40% | |
| DunnF · 26 min | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Adlee Blacklock: Portland St 44%San José St 56%
The white mark is the call with her: San José St 61%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San José St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | ||||
| Adlee Blacklock | 1.4 | 56% | −5 | 67–69 |
| Portland St | ||||
| Sara Barhoum | 0.7 | 63% | +2 | 66–70 |
Change is in San José St's win chance, in points. Scores read Portland St, then San José St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Portland St 0-4LLLL
- Nov 12L 64-78at UC San Diego
- Nov 10L 67-70at San Diego
- Nov 6L 68-83at Boise St
- Nov 2L 43-59vs Pepperdine
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.5 and allowing 72.5
San José St 0-2LL
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 49.0 and allowing 89.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Portland St | San José St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.8 223rd | 81.5 300th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.6 345th | 98.7 271st |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.9% 340th | 44.9% 211th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.1% 317th | 44.2% 105th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.5% 32nd | 25.1% 286th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.2% 45th | 28.2% 355th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 113th | 0.22 132nd |
The widest gap: Portland St's offense (223rd) against San José St's defense (271st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Portland St 31, San José St 33
- First-half margin
- San José St by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.4
- Projected second half
- Portland St 35, San José St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Portland St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 34.0 allowed
- San José St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 22.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teagan ColvinG | 36 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kyleigh BrownG | 35 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Laynee Torres-KahapeaG | 33 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Nihoa DunnF | 26 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Kirstine MunkF | 26 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Emma ZunigaF | 22 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Sara BarhoumG | 16 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
San José St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika MaceG | 29 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Adlee BlacklockG | 29 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Eve BlagroveG | 26 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Maleyni TolliverF | 25 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Sydnie RodriguezG | 24 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Cristina Sanchez CerqueiraF | 21 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Kayla LorenzG | 21 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Gabriela PatoF | 10 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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