Portland St at Portland
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Chiles Center. Portland St our rank 297 · 0-4; Portland our rank 89 · 2-2.
Who will win Portland St vs Portland?
The model gives Portland a 98% chance to beat Portland State, with a projected score of Portland 82, Portland St 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | |||||
| MogelG · 22 min | 10.5 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| AnanievG · 24 min | 10.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| ManganG · 21 min | 9.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| SpearF · 20 min | 8.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| Portland St | |||||
| BrownG · 32 min | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 15+ 36% | |
| ColvinG · 32 min | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| Torres-KahapeaG · 30 min | 7.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 5+ 67% | |
| DunnF · 25 min | 6.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dyani Ananiev: Portland St 4%Portland 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Portland 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Portland without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | ||||
| Dyani Ananiev | 2.2 | 96% | −2 | 58–81 |
| Julia Dalan | 1.7 | 97% | −1 | 58–81 |
| Lainey Spear | 1.4 | 97% | −1 | 58–81 |
| Florence Dallow | 1.4 | 97% | −1 | 58–81 |
| Portland St | ||||
| Sara Barhoum | 0.7 | 98% | 0 | 57–83 |
Change is in Portland's win chance, in points. Scores read Portland St, then Portland. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Portland St 0-4LLLL
- Nov 12L 64-78at UC San Diego
- Nov 10L 67-70at San Diego
- Nov 6L 68-83at Boise St
- Nov 2L 43-59vs Pepperdine
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 60.5 and allowing 72.5
Portland 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 90-33vs Warner Pacific
- Nov 8L 65-75at Montana St
- Nov 5L 64-74at BYU
- Nov 2W 107-29vs Willamette
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.5 and allowing 52.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Portland St | Portland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.8 223rd | 96.4 103rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.6 345th | 88.0 75th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.9% 340th | 45.8% 155th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.1% 317th | 43.1% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.5% 32nd | 24.3% 252nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.2% 45th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 113th | 0.23 90th |
The widest gap: Portland's offense (103rd) against Portland St's defense (345th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Portland St 26, Portland 40
- First-half margin
- Portland by 14.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Portland St 31, Portland 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Portland St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Portland, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teagan ColvinG | 32 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Kyleigh BrownG | 32 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Laynee Torres-KahapeaG | 30 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Nihoa DunnF | 25 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Kirstine MunkF | 25 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Emma ZunigaF | 21 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Sara BarhoumG | 16 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Liv CollinsG | 10 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 31% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Portland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyani AnanievG | 24 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Rhyan MogelG | 22 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Sara ManganG | 21 | 9.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Lainey SpearF | 20 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Florence DallowG | 20 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Julia DalanC | 20 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Tiffany BarbosaG | 15 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Goundo Diakite BayoF | 14 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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