Who will win Kansas vs Minnesota?
The model gives Minnesota a 92% chance to beat Kansas, with a projected score of Minnesota 79, Kansas 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota | |||||
| GrocholskiG · 29 min | 14.5 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 15+ 46% | |
| MerkleC · 15 min | 11.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| HarmonG · 25 min | 10.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| BraunG · 29 min | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 54% | |
 Kansas | |||||
| DavisF · 27 min | 16.7 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 15+ 59% | |
| NicholsG · 23 min | 11.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 10+ 58% | |
| WilliamsF · 26 min | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| FandelG · 28 min | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Grocholski: Kansas 19%Minnesota 81%
The white mark is the call with her: Minnesota 92%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Minnesota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Grace Grocholski | 6.6 | 81% | −11 | 64–75 |
| Mara Braun | 5.8 | 83% | −9 | 64–76 |
| Gracie Merkle | 3.7 | 87% | −5 | 63–77 |
| Leah Harmon | 3.4 | 88% | −4 | 63–77 |
| Kansas | ||||
| Jaliya Davis | 5.2 | 97% | +5 | 59–81 |
| S'Mya Nichols | 4.2 | 96% | +4 | 59–81 |
| Regan Williams | 2.7 | 95% | +3 | 60–80 |
| Brittany Harshaw | 2.3 | 95% | +3 | 60–80 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read Kansas, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kansas 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 49.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kansas | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 70th | 116.4 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.7 42nd | 82.5 40th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 114th | 48.5% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.7% 34th | 46.7% 254th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 181st | 23.3% 171st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 234th | 40.2% 3rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 28th | 0.24 39th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's offense (6th) against Kansas's defense (42nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kansas 28, Minnesota 38
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 10.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Projected second half
- Kansas 33, Minnesota 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany HarshawG | 29 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Libby FandelG | 28 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jaliya DavisF | 27 | 16.7 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Regan WilliamsF | 26 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| S'Mya NicholsG | 23 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Anna GoodenG | 22 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Brooklynn RennF | 15 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Mollie ErnstesG | 15 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace GrocholskiG | 29 | 14.5 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mara BraunG | 29 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Natalie KussowG | 26 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Leah HarmonG | 25 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tayla ThomasF | 22 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Tori OehrleinG | 16 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Gracie MerkleC | 15 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Kennedy KlickG | 12 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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