CA Baptist at San José St
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center. CA Baptist our rank 119 · 2-0; San José St our rank 303 · 0-2.
Who will win CA Baptist vs San José St?
The model gives California Baptist a 86% chance to beat San José State, with a projected score of CA Baptist 77, San José St 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Baptist | |||||
| OlsenG · 27 min | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 15+ 50% | |
| BriggsG · 26 min | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| BreceljF · 17 min | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| WillardsonF · 14 min | 7.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 5+ 65% | |
| San José St | |||||
| MaceG · 28 min | 10.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| RodriguezG · 23 min | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 35% | |
| BlacklockG · 28 min | 7.9 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| BlagroveG · 25 min | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Chloe Briggs: CA Baptist 81%San José St 19%
The white mark is the call with her: CA Baptist 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | CA Baptist without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Baptist | ||||
| Chloe Briggs | 2.7 | 81% | −5 | 75–64 |
| Lauren Olsen | 2.5 | 81% | −5 | 75–64 |
| Spela Brecelj | 1.4 | 83% | −3 | 76–64 |
| Paula Haw | 0.7 | 85% | −1 | 76–63 |
| San José St | ||||
| Adlee Blacklock | 1.4 | 88% | +2 | 77–62 |
Change is in CA Baptist's win chance, in points. Scores read CA Baptist, then San José St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
CA Baptist 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 68.5
San José St 0-2LL
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 49.0 and allowing 89.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| CA Baptist | San José St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.8 101st | 81.5 300th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 156th | 98.7 271st |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 66th | 44.9% 211th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.6% 67th | 44.2% 105th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.1% 23rd | 25.1% 286th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 37th | 28.2% 355th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 342nd | 0.22 132nd |
The widest gap: CA Baptist's offense (101st) against San José St's defense (271st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- CA Baptist 37, San José St 29
- First-half margin
- CA Baptist by 7.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Projected second half
- CA Baptist 40, San José St 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- CA Baptist, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- San José St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 2 · 22.0 scored, 43.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
CA Baptist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren OlsenG | 27 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Sofia AlonsoG | 26 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Chloe BriggsG | 26 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Reyleigh HessF | 20 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Josie AgnewG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Spela BreceljF | 17 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| McKinley WillardsonF | 14 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Bella KlagesG | 13 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
San José St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika MaceG | 28 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Adlee BlacklockG | 28 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Eve BlagroveG | 25 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Maleyni TolliverF | 24 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Sydnie RodriguezG | 23 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Cristina Sanchez CerqueiraF | 21 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Kayla LorenzG | 21 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Gabriela PatoF | 11 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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