Who won Murray St vs Princeton?
Final: Princeton 76, Murray State 74. Before tip-off the model gave Princeton a 74% chance to win, with a projected margin of 8.2 points for Princeton. Skye Belker scored 28 for Princeton; Halli Poock had 29 for Murray St.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Fadima Tall: Murray St 42%Princeton 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Princeton 74%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Princeton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Princeton | ||||
| Fadima Tall | 5.5 | 58% | −16 | 73–75 |
| Olivia Hutcherson | 4.0 | 63% | −11 | 72–76 |
| Skye Belker | 3.4 | 64% | −10 | 72–76 |
| Ashley Chea | 2.5 | 67% | −7 | 71–77 |
 Murray St | ||||
| Sharnecce Currie-Jelks | 3.7 | 83% | +9 | 68–80 |
| Halli Poock | 2.9 | 81% | +7 | 69–80 |
| Haven Ford | 2.7 | 80% | +6 | 69–80 |
| Claire Johnson | 2.1 | 79% | +5 | 69–79 |
Change is in Princeton's win chance, in points. Scores read Murray St, then Princeton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Murray St | Princeton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 47th | 108.8 23rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.8 213th | 90.0 108th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 69.1 359th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 96th | 47.6% 62nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 200th | 44.7% 134th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 130th | 23.0% 132nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.0% 166th | 35.3% 68th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 41st | 0.23 63rd |
The widest gap: Princeton's offense (23rd) against Murray St's defense (213th), of 363 teams.
First half
Murray St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 7.7 points and the total by 4.7.
- At halftime
- Murray St 39, Princeton 36
- Projected halftime score
- Murray St 33, Princeton 37
- First-half margin
- Princeton by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Murray St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 31.5 scored, 29.5 allowed
- Princeton, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 26.0 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Murray St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halli PoockG | 35 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Sharnecce Currie-JelksF | 32 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Haven FordG | 32 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Keslyn SecristG | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Claire JohnsonG | 23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Katie ReedF | 20 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Sydney HuberG | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Destiny ThomasG | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaidynn AskinsF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Princeton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye BelkerG | 37 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Olivia HutchersonG | 35 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Grace O'SullivanG | 34 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashley CheaG | 34 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Fadima TallF | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Emily EadieF | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cristina ParrellaG | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mari BickleyG | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva SmithF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More games on Sun, Nov 8
All games- FinalRhode Island vs South Florida, women's: game page
- FinalWest Virginia at Georgia Tech, women's: game page
- FinalRice at Richmond, women's: game page
- FinalKentucky vs NC State, women's: game page
- FinalNorth Carolina vs South Carolina, women's: game page
- FinalJames Madison at Virginia Tech, women's: game page