Who won Belmont vs Princeton?
Final: Princeton 63, Belmont 52. Before tip-off the model gave Princeton a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 23.4 points for Princeton. Fadima Tall scored 29 for Princeton; Kenley McCarn had 15 for Belmont.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Fadima Tall: Belmont 10%Princeton 90%
The white mark is the call with her: Princeton 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Princeton without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Princeton | ||||
| Fadima Tall | 5.5 | 90% | −6 | 72–90 |
| Olivia Hutcherson | 4.0 | 92% | −4 | 71–90 |
| Skye Belker | 3.4 | 93% | −3 | 71–91 |
| Ashley Chea | 2.5 | 94% | −2 | 70–91 |
 Belmont | ||||
| Kenley McCarn | 1.7 | 97% | +1 | 68–93 |
| Quinn Eubank | 1.7 | 97% | +1 | 68–93 |
| KK Brodie | 1.4 | 96% | 0 | 68–93 |
| Chelby Jordan | 0.8 | 96% | 0 | 69–93 |
Change is in Princeton's win chance, in points. Scores read Belmont, then Princeton. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Belmont
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Princeton
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Belmont | Princeton | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.2 150th | 108.8 23rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.9 133rd | 90.0 108th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 69.1 359th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.5% 245th | 47.6% 62nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.7% 193rd | 44.7% 134th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 241st | 23.0% 132nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 233rd | 35.3% 68th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 309th | 0.23 63rd |
The widest gap: Princeton's offense (23rd) against Belmont's defense (133rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Princeton led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 33.5.
- At halftime
- Belmont 18, Princeton 25
- Projected halftime score
- Belmont 32, Princeton 45
- First-half margin
- Princeton by 13.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn EubankG | 32 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenley McCarnG | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| KK BrodieC | 31 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chelby JordanG | 30 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Katie CriswellG | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kate McGinnisG | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tatum WoodsonG | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Rylie BeersG | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Samiya JonesF | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Princeton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fadima TallF | 37 | 29 | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| Skye BelkerG | 36 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Olivia HutchersonG | 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ashley CheaG | 27 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Grace O'SullivanG | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Toby NwekeG | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Emily EadieF | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cristina ParrellaG | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mari BickleyG | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |