Troy 89, Kent State 78
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at M.A.C. Center. Troy our rank 134 · 2-1; Kent State our rank 189 · 0-2.
Who won Troy vs Kent State?
Final: Troy 89, Kent State 78. Before tip-off the model gave Troy a 47% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 0.9 points for Kent State. Tiauna King scored 21 for Troy; Riley Rismiller had 18 for Kent State.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Emory Klatt: Troy 57%Kent State 43%
The white mark is the call with her: Kent State 53%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kent State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | ||||
| Emory Klatt | 2.8 | 43% | −10 | 86–84 |
| Riley Rismiller | 1.8 | 47% | −6 | 85–84 |
| Corynne Hauser | 0.6 | 51% | −2 | 85–85 |
| Troy | ||||
| Saniya Jackson | 2.1 | 61% | +8 | 83–86 |
| Shakirah Edwards | 1.3 | 58% | +5 | 84–86 |
| Hannah Smith | 0.9 | 57% | +4 | 84–86 |
| Aniya Hubbard | 0.8 | 56% | +3 | 84–86 |
Change is in Kent State's win chance, in points. Scores read Troy, then Kent State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Troy
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Kent State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Troy | Kent State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.0 129th | 88.2 213th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.7 146th | 94.0 172nd |
| Possessions a game | 76.7 3rd | 73.5 71st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.4% 73rd | 43.8% 287th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.1% 45th | 46.6% 247th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 146th | 22.7% 116th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.2% 268th | 29.6% 332nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 217th | 0.24 35th |
The widest gap: Troy's defense (146th) against Kent State's offense (213th), of 363 teams.
First half
Troy led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 7.7.
- At halftime
- Troy 47, Kent State 41
- Projected halftime score
- Troy 40, Kent State 40
- First-half margin
- Kent State by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aniya HubbardG | 33 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tiauna KingG | 30 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Saniya JacksonG | 28 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Shakirah EdwardsG | 23 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Hannah SmithG | 21 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Maliyah MeeksF | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamonica ChambersF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Kimora HughesG | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Tayla BarrosG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Kent State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley RismillerC | 34 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Sini LuukkonenG | 34 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Emory KlattF | 29 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Talia HarrisG | 28 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Corynne HauserG | 28 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Whitney StaffordG | 24 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Anna CampanelliG | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maddie KiperG | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Journey HildebrandG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |