Who will win Houston vs Montana?
The model gives Houston a 69% chance to beat Montana, with a projected score of Houston 72, Montana 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston | |||||
| McCowanG · 32 min | 17.1 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 15+ 61% | |
| HamiltonG · 26 min | 11.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| EnriquezG · 25 min | 10.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| LutbertC · 21 min | 9.3 | 8.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
 Montana | |||||
| LofingG · 28 min | 14.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 15+ 45% | |
| WaddingtonG · 33 min | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| NeslandG · 26 min | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 38% | |
| LandF · 22 min | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kaelyn Hamilton: Houston 60%Montana 40%
The white mark is the call with her: Houston 69%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Houston without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | ||||
| Kaelyn Hamilton | 3.0 | 60% | −9 | 70–67 |
| Raegan McCowan | 2.6 | 61% | −8 | 70–67 |
| Elodie Lutbert | 2.1 | 63% | −6 | 71–66 |
| Janiyah Williams | 1.8 | 64% | −5 | 71–66 |
| Montana | ||||
| Paige Lofing | 0.7 | 71% | +2 | 72–65 |
| Shay Shippen | 0.6 | 71% | +2 | 72–65 |
| Avery Waddington | 0.5 | 71% | +2 | 72–65 |
Change is in Houston's win chance, in points. Scores read Houston, then Montana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Houston 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 80.0 and allowing 58.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Houston | Montana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.5 124th | 89.4 187th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.8 104th | 97.2 240th |
| Possessions a game | 74.2 37th | 71.7 211th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 28th | 45.6% 162nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.6% 32nd | 47.6% 300th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 312th | 23.5% 183rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.9% 85th | 29.9% 323rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 249th | 0.24 55th |
The widest gap: Houston's offense (124th) against Montana's defense (240th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Houston 34, Montana 31
- First-half margin
- Houston by 3.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.9
- Projected second half
- Houston 37, Montana 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Houston, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Montana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raegan McCowanG | 32 | 17.1 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Marta LlompartG | 27 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kaelyn HamiltonG | 26 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Esmeralda EnriquezG | 25 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Elodie LutbertC | 21 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Alyvia McCorkleG | 17 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kayla KingG | 16 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Madison CarltonF | 15 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Montana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery WaddingtonG | 33 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Paige LofingG | 28 | 14.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Dom NeslandG | 26 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kennedy MooreF | 22 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jocelyn LandF | 22 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Shay ShippenG | 20 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Hayden KautF | 14 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Kate HolmquistG | 12 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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