Who won Hampton vs Houston?
Final: Houston 73, Hampton 65. Before tip-off the model gave Houston a 93% chance to win, with a projected margin of 20.6 points for Houston. Esmeralda Enriquez scored 20 for Houston; Kiki McElrath had 33 for Hampton.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kaelyn Hamilton: Hampton 10%Houston 90%
The white mark is the call with her: Houston 93%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Houston without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston | ||||
| Kaelyn Hamilton | 3.0 | 90% | −3 | 70–87 |
| Raegan McCowan | 2.6 | 90% | −3 | 70–88 |
| Elodie Lutbert | 2.1 | 91% | −2 | 69–88 |
| Janiyah Williams | 1.8 | 91% | −2 | 69–88 |
 Hampton | ||||
| Justus Fitzgerald | 1.1 | 94% | +1 | 68–90 |
Change is in Houston's win chance, in points. Scores read Hampton, then Houston. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Hampton
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Houston
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Hampton | Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.0 253rd | 94.5 124th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.1 257th | 89.8 104th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 74.2 37th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.9% 316th | 48.7% 28th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.2% 157th | 42.6% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 89th | 25.7% 312th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.2% 73rd | 34.9% 85th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 30th | 0.20 249th |
The widest gap: Houston's defense (104th) against Hampton's offense (253rd), of 363 teams.
First half
Houston led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.8 points and the total by 8.6.
- At halftime
- Hampton 29, Houston 37
- Projected halftime score
- Hampton 31, Houston 43
- First-half margin
- Houston by 11.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Hampton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoey RixterG | 34 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Kiki McElrathG | 34 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaryn BattleG | 32 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Arlisha BostonG | 22 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Kennedy HallF | 18 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Nilah RiveraG | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Justus FitzgeraldF | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maya WoodsonF | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Amiyah DonaldsonG | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marta LlompartG | 32 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Esmeralda EnriquezG | 31 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Raegan McCowanG | 31 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Janiyah WilliamsG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Madison CarltonF | 20 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Jorynn RossF | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Elodie LutbertC | 16 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Kayla KingG | 13 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tamia KingF | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |