Who will win Montana vs Gonzaga?
The model gives Gonzaga a 95% chance to beat Montana, with a projected score of Gonzaga 80, Montana 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gonzaga | |||||
| WhittakerF · 25 min | 17.4 | 10.1 | 2.4 | 15+ 63% | |
| TurnerG · 29 min | 14.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| SmithF · 24 min | 9.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| AokusoG · 23 min | 7.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 33% | |
 Montana | |||||
| LofingG · 27 min | 12.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| WaddingtonG · 31 min | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 10+ 38% | |
| NeslandG · 25 min | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 32% | |
| LandF · 22 min | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lauren Whittaker: Montana 11%Gonzaga 89%
The white mark is the call with her: Gonzaga 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Gonzaga without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Lauren Whittaker | 4.9 | 89% | −6 | 62–77 |
| Allie Turner | 2.7 | 92% | −3 | 61–78 |
| Taylor Smith | 1.8 | 93% | −2 | 60–79 |
| Teryn Gardner | 1.8 | 93% | −2 | 60–79 |
| Montana | ||||
| Paige Lofing | 0.7 | 95% | 0 | 59–80 |
| Shay Shippen | 0.6 | 95% | 0 | 59–80 |
| Avery Waddington | 0.5 | 95% | 0 | 59–80 |
Change is in Gonzaga's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana, then Gonzaga. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Montana 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 68.7 and allowing 69.7
Gonzaga 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 85-58vs UC Riverside
- Nov 6L 75-86vs Idaho
- Nov 2W 62-56vs N Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.0 and allowing 66.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana | Gonzaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.4 187th | 102.0 59th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.2 240th | 90.5 116th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 162nd | 45.1% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.6% 300th | 46.3% 230th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 183rd | 23.6% 193rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 323rd | 32.9% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 55th | 0.22 106th |
The widest gap: Gonzaga's offense (59th) against Montana's defense (240th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Montana 27, Gonzaga 39
- First-half margin
- Gonzaga by 11.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.9
- Projected second half
- Montana 32, Gonzaga 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Montana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Gonzaga, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 34.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Montana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery WaddingtonG | 31 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Paige LofingG | 27 | 12.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dom NeslandG | 25 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kennedy MooreF | 22 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jocelyn LandF | 22 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Shay ShippenG | 20 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Hayden KautF | 15 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Kate HolmquistG | 13 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie TurnerG | 29 | 14.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Lauren WhittakerF | 25 | 17.4 | 10.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 10+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Taylor SmithF | 24 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Teryn GardnerG | 24 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Zeryhia AokusoG | 23 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ines BettencourtG | 20 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| McKynnlie DalanF | 17 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Julia WilsonG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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