Providence at Boston College
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Conte Forum. Providence our rank 156 · 1-2; Boston College our rank 162 · 1-2.
Who will win Providence vs Boston College?
The model gives Boston College a 63% chance to beat Providence, with a projected score of Boston College 67, Providence 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | |||||
| GrierG · 32 min | 15.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 15+ 50% | |
| PaunksnyteG · 32 min | 11.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| SalgadoF · 27 min | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| HollingsworthG · 24 min | 7.1 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 5+ 66% | |
| Providence | |||||
| GormleyG · 29 min | 11.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| SilverG · 31 min | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| MoodyG · 28 min | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 41% | |
| BarnerG · 23 min | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jocelyne Grier: Providence 41%Boston College 59%
The white mark is the call with her: Boston College 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Boston College without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | ||||
| Jocelyne Grier | 1.0 | 59% | −4 | 64–67 |
| Daniele Paunksnyte | 0.8 | 60% | −3 | 64–67 |
| Eunicia Salgado | 0.7 | 60% | −3 | 64–67 |
| Nuria Ausaverri | 0.6 | 61% | −2 | 64–67 |
| Providence | ||||
| Orlagh Gormley | 2.2 | 69% | +6 | 62–68 |
| J'Adore Young | 1.7 | 68% | +5 | 63–68 |
Change is in Boston College's win chance, in points. Scores read Providence, then Boston College. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Providence 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 58.7 and allowing 59.3
Boston College 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 86-57vs UMass Lowell
- Nov 5L 51-81at Harvard
- Nov 2L 54-64vs Holy Cross
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 63.7 and allowing 67.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Providence | Boston College | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.2 173rd | 92.3 148th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.7 129th | 94.4 180th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.9% 282nd | 43.0% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.1% 218th | 46.2% 220th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.6% 334th | 24.1% 231st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 219th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 115th | 0.23 66th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Providence 30, Boston College 32
- First-half margin
- Boston College by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.1
- Projected second half
- Providence 34, Boston College 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Providence, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 26.7 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Boston College, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Providence
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylah SilverG | 31 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Orlagh GormleyG | 29 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Princess MoodyG | 28 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Taylor BarnerG | 23 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 26% to play · 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Payton DunbarG | 23 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| J'Adore YoungC | 22 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Audrey ShieldsG | 19 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Voldie BasanaF | 15 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Missed the last game: Taylor Barner (26 min a game).
Boston College
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniele PaunksnyteG | 32 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Athena TomlinsonG | 32 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jocelyne GrierG | 32 | 15.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Eunicia SalgadoF | 27 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Megan HollingsworthG | 24 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nuria AusaverriF | 17 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Nora ArozenaF | 17 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Grace OliverF | 13 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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